Introduction

This section summarizes global disaster events that occurred between July and October 2024. It covers various shocks with food security implications, including the effects of armed conflict, desert locust outbreak,heat and drought, floods as well as wildfires.

Extreme conditions by type

Armed conflict

Famine in Sudan: As a result of persistent, intense, and widespread clashes between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces in Darfur, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) Famine Review Committee has concluded that the Zamzam camp in North Darfur is now in famine conditions. Around 320 000 people have fled the escalating conflict in the capital of North Darfur, El Fasher. It is likely that other Internally Displaced People (IDPs) camps in North Darfur also face famine, and other areas of greater Darfur and Khartoum also face famine-like conditions. In all of Sudan, a total of 25.6 million people are facing acute hunger according to the World Food Program.

Conflict in Lebanon: The recent escalation has exacerbated an already dire food security situation in Lebanon. The conflict has caused widespread destruction of farmland in the South and Bekaa regions, which account for over 60 percent of Lebanon’s agricultural production. Conditions are expected to worsen following the recent escalation of conflict, with over 1 million people now directly affected and displaced. More than half of the population in Syria was already facing food insecurity and approximately 3 million people in the grip of severe hunger conditions.

Violence and conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo  Armed violence and conflict continue to affect the livelihoods of people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This, combined with soaring food prices and the prolonged effects of various epidemics have left approximately 25.6 million in high levels of acute food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse). Between July to December 2024, around 3 percent of people (around 3.1 million people) are facing critical levels of food insecurity – IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) – characterized by large food gaps and high levels of acute malnutrition. Another 19 percent (22.4 million people) are facing crisis levels of food insecurity, classified as IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

Acute Food Insecurity in Gaza Strip: One year into the conflict, the risk of famine persists across the whole Gaza Strip. Violence has crippled food systems and destroyed 70 percent of crop fields. Catastrophic acute food insecurity and acute malnutrition levels will continue to prevail if the conflict continues, and humanitarian activities are restricted. Between September and October 2024, the whole territory is classified in Emergency (IPC4 ).

Acute Food Insecurity in Yemen: A continued but slow deterioration in the food security situation occurred in Yemen, and nearly half of the population (4.7 million people) experienced high levels of acute food between July and September 2024. The declining economy, coupled with continued conflict and irregular humanitarian food assistance drive the high levels of acute food insecurity. In addition, torrential rains in August 2024 led to localized flooding and disrupted agricultural activities, resulting in loss of livestock and farmland.

Desert Locust

Calm situation during the monitoring period: According to the 2024 FAO Desert Locust Bulletin from July to October (Figure 1), the Desert Locust situation was calm, with no threats to crops. In October, the earlier summer rainfall led to low numbers of hoppers and adults from Mauritania to Sudan and Saudi Arabia, with some in southeast Egypt, Yemen’s interior, northwest Somalia, and along the Indo-Pakistan border. By the end of October, a very small outbreak developed in the interior of Sudan where small groups of hoppers and adults and very small bands were present and treated. During the forecast, as the vegetation dries out, small groups of locusts will move from Sudan to the Red Sea coast where winter breeding will commence there as well as parts of Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia. A few small groups could form in Mauritania and perhaps parts of Mali, Niger, and Chad. Limited control is expected in some countries.

Figure 1 Desert Locust situation, July2024 – October 2024.

The warmest July on record and persistent water shortage

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, July 2024 was the warmest July on record for the globe in NOAA's 175-year record and 0.03°C warmer than July 2023. Among the July global hotspots reported by the WMO: Japan’s monthly average temperature was the highest in the instrumental record back to 1898, at 2.16°C warmer than the 1991-2020 average. China saw the warmest month in a record the goes back to 1961. India had its second warmest July on record, with minimum overnight temperatures being the warmest since 1901. Pakistan and Iran both suffered repeated heatwaves, with the latter forced to close schools because of the heat. A heatwave in Morocco included 47.6℃ in Marrakech, after an unusually cool start to the month with the sudden contrast intensifying the heat stress on people. Many areas of the Mediterranean and Balkans were gripped by extended heatwaves, causing casualties and impacting public health.  The NCEP global air temperature datasets show that the there were at least two spikes of air temperature during 2024 (figure 2a). One spikes was from Jan to Feb when there was just mid-summer in southern hemisphere, the second spike was from July and August when there was mid-summer in northern hemisphere. The land surface temperature (LST) at the noon (~13:30) from Aqua MODIS show that the peaks of LST fit well with peaks of global air temperature (Figure 2b). We could find that the regions with higher than normal temperature include north Brazil, south Africa, western part of north America, eastern Europe based on NOAA global temperature condition index (TCI) map in the late July of 2024 (Figure 2c).

Figure 2 The charts of NCEP global air temperature (a) Global land surface temperature from Aqua MODIS (b) and global temperature condition index (TCI) map in 30th week of 2024 from NOAA satellites(c)

During July to October, there was serious precipitation shortage in the North Africa, Southern Africa, most area of Brazil and West Africa, some parts of West Asia and Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Figure 3). Compared with the pattern of rainfall differences during the recent whole year, Brazil and southern Africa suffered seriously from long-term precipitation shortage. The precipitation was more than sufficient in India and northern Kazakhstan.

             July to October 2024                                           November 2023- October 2024

Figure 3 Precipitation anomaly from July to Oct and precipitation difference from November to October

Worst drought in century devastates and Food insecurity in Southern Africa: 

Lesotho, Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have all declared a state of national disaster in the past months as the drought that started in February has destroyed crops and livestock. Angola and Mozambique are also severely affected. The WFP warned that the crisis is expected to deepen until the next harvests in March or April 2025. CropWatch team assessed the water stress of farmland in Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique(Figure 5). The results show that during monitoring period, there are serious drought risks in Malawi in July, Namibia from July to Septmber, Zambia from July to Septmber, Zimbabwe from July to earlier August, Angola from July to Septmber and Mozambique from July to earlier August. In Madagascar, approximately 12% of the rural population are affected by acute food insecurity (IPC3+) during the period from May to September. In Eswatini, 25% of the population is expected to be in IPC3+ for the projected period from October 2024 to March 2025. To make matters worse, these food security situations are expected to worsen between October 2024 and March 2025, due to the start of the lean season and seasonal price increases.

Figure 4 The remote sensing based water stress and their risks for Malawi, Namibia, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Angola and Mozambique of southern Africa

Hydrological drought in South America

Insufficient rainfall in 2023-2024 has taken a toll on the region’s rivers and groundwater and upended daily life in several countries in South America. Rivers in the Amazon basin fell to record-low levels in October 2024 as drought gripped vast areas of South America. In late July, the Brazilian water agency declared water shortages for the Madeira and Purus water basins that together spread across an area nearly as large as Mexico. The state of Acre also declared a water shortage emergency for Rio Branco, requiring truck shipments of water to arrive in the city to fill the population's needs. The drought led to widespread crop failures in the state. On 20 July, the Madeira River's water level fell under three meters (10 feet) in the area near Porto Velho. In August 2024, the Amazon had several of its rivers reach critically low water levels in the first weeks of its dry season, with several rivers in the southwest Amazon reaching their lowest point on record for their respective times of the year. On October 4, 2024, river gauge data from the Brazilian Geologic Service indicated that the Solimões had fallen to 254 centimeters below the gauge’s zero mark, a record low. Rivers that day also reached record lows near the cities of Porto Vehlo, Jirau-Justante, Fonte Boa, Itapéua, Manacapuru, Rio Acre, Beruri, and Humaitá. Water height data collected by satellite altimeters and processed by a team of NASA scientists reported unusually low water levels at several Brazilian lakes and reservoirs as well, including Lake Tefe, Lake Mamia, Lake Mamori, Lake Ariau, Lake Faro, and Lake Erepecu. A powerful drought in Brazil’s Pantanal region led to the lowest water levels on the Paraguay River in more than a century, disrupting commerce on the major waterway and offering a grim warning for other parts of the world. Water levels dipped 89 centimeters (35 inches) below the meter’s benchmark at the port of Asunción, the capital, the lowest point in 120 years. The previous record-breaking drop occurred just three years ago. The runoff reanalysis datasets in Amazon basin show that compared with average monthly value of 1961-2022 as normal condition, the low-than-normal condition of runoff started at the end of the rainy season in 2023, it lasted the whole hydrological year in 2024.  Meantime, the terrestrial water resources monitoring by GRACE-FO find a serious drop of equivalent water height starting from May, 2023 and the gap was increasing with precipitation shortage. The remote sensing based water stress and risks in Brazil show that the drought risk remains high (Figure 5).

Figure 5 The monthly runoff and equivalent water heights by GRACE in Amazon basin, South America and the remote sensing based water stress and risks in Brazil

Floods

Massive floods affect millions across South and Southeast Asia: In early July, massive floods have swept through swathes of India, Nepal and Bangladesh, killing scores of people and affecting millions of others. Floods and landslides are not uncommon during monsoon season in South and Southeast Asia, when it receives up to 90% of its annual rainfall. But experts say the issue has worsened in recent years due to climate change. In the Indian state of Assam, about 2.4 million have been affected by floods while 66 people have died since mid-May. Roads and vast areas of farmland have been submerged along the banks of the Brahmaputra. In Bangladesh, two million people have been affected by floods with at least eight people dead. The overflowing Brahmaputra has inundated a quarter of the districts in the country. In China, a breach in a dike occurred at Dongting Lake in Huarong county, Hunan province, resulting in at least 6,000 evacuated people and flooding a wide area. In Myanmar, an estimated 118,000 people have been temporarily evacuated to safer places as of 16 July. Hundreds of thousands of acres of farmlands have been inundated, which may threaten to significantly reduce monsoon rice yields and likely jeopardize the food security of smallholder farmers. In Philippines, it reports 273,757 displaced, 3,617,365 affected and 1,256 houses damaged or destroyed by the influence from tropical cyclone GAEMI in late July. In the India state of Karnataka, a total of 78,679 ha of agricultural land has been damaged statewide and horticultural crops on 2 294 ha in August.

Flooding across West and Central Africa: Just two months into the 2024 rainy season in West and Central Africa, torrential rains and severe flooding in August have affected 716,473 people in the Central African Republic, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Niger, Nigeria, Mali and Togo. Food production and food security are also at stake with at least 25,726 hectares of farmland damaged and 4,205 livestock killed. In Nigeria, weeks of flooding washed away homes and farmlands, further threatening food supplies. Failure to follow environmental guidelines and inadequate infrastructure records is an important reason for the recorded flooding every year in Nigeria. In Ethiopia, floods damaged homes and properties, destroyed over 2,000 hectares of cultivated land, and have contaminated water supply schemes. In Sudan, flooded land means people are unable to grow crops and graze their livestock, adding to food insecurity and hunger in areas also affected by the war between two army generals.

Floods in Central Europe: The 2024 Central European floods were caused by Storm Boris, which brought record rainfall beginning on 13 September 2024. In Czech Republic, over 200 rivers overflowed, with the rain totals in parts of region exceeded previous flood records. In Poland, a "state of natural disaster" for a period of 30 days was declared on 16 September, in parts of the Lower Silesian, Opole, and Silesian voivodeships. In Romania, over 150 mm of rainfall per square meter in less than 24 hours caused ash floods in several areas in counties of Galați and Vaslui. In Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Government declared the state of emergency on 5 October for the territory of Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Heatwaves and wildfire

Global average temperatures have hit record highs for 13 consecutive months starting last June. Half the US population were under heat alerts on  August 1st. As of August 3rd, more than 800 fires were burning in Canada, “including more than 250 out of control”, with British Columbia and Alberta badly affected. In the South American winter, some regions in Brazil, Uruguay and Argentina recorded temperatures more typical of summer, even reaching 35°C.

Record forest fires in Amazon’s rainforest: The Amazon has had its worst forest fires in two decades. More than 62,000 square kilometers have been burned this year already. The world relies on the Amazon to absorb a lot of its carbon; however, these fires mean it is now emitting record amounts itself. Most fires here are illegally started by humans, according to scientists, the Federal Police, and the government: loggers and miners looking to exploit land in the Amazon, or farmers turning it into pasture. Furthermore, the worst-ever drought in Brazil has turned the normally damp vegetation into a dry tinderbox and has made the condition worse.  The wildfires have underscored the heightened vulnerability many nations are experiencing under extreme weather conditions fueled by climate change. In Brazil, data from the space agency Inpe suggests the number of fires burning in São Paulo in August has been higher than in any August since it started collecting data in 1998. More than 20,000 hectares have been destroyed, and large sugarcane fields are among those razed to the ground. In Bolivia, satellite data showed the country is also grappling with a record number of fires in the first seven months of the year. Bolivia registered roughly 17,700 fire points from January through July, which is the most ever seen in that period in the country. Venezuela, Guyana and Suriname have also seen the most fires ever in the first seven months of the year.  Climate change is causing the dry season to start earlier, which is typically from July to October. Shifting rain patterns, high winds and the drought caused the blazes to spread faster and last longer.

Smoke from Canadian wildfires reaches Europe: Large-scale wildfires were burning across boreal regions of North America in August. A map of fire locations over North America shows some of the main fire activity to be in the Northwest Territories of Canada. As a result, Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have already seen their highest wildfire carbon emissions for August, contributing to the August total estimated emissions for Canada of just over 80 megatons, approaching its highest August carbon emissions since 2003. The wildfires have been affecting air quality, both locally and further afield.

Food use balance situation in 2024

The food balance between 2024 crop production estimations and food requirements by country’s population was used to indicate food self-sufficiency situation. From the Table 1, we could find that Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Lebanon and Mozambique are typical food deficit countries in 2024. For most of the countries, local wheat production does not satisfy food needs. Afghanistan has potential requirements for wheat import or food aid. Sri Landka has great requirement for rice import or food aid. The maize productions for Ethiopia does not satisfy the basic food needs. The rice production for Mozambique could not satisfy the food needs in 2024 and the production of maize had some surplus. Compared with food use balance in 2023, the food situation became more serious for Afghanistan, Mozambique and Sri Landka. 

Table 1 Trend in food use balance for selected crops in some food deficit countries in million tonnes (10⁶ t)

 *Food use = estimated per capital food use(FAO) for each crop multiplied by estimated population, country-level population in 2024 were estimated from United Nations Population Division 

During our monitoring period, drought has severely affected crop growth and caused the food insecurity for some food deficit countries. The start of the winter rainy season was delayed, as there was no rainfall in October, which may have a negative impact on the land preparation for the winter cereals in Lebanon. Crop Production Index as well as the average crop conditions are below average, especially in the central and northern regions in Mozambique. The news released from World Food Programme(WFP) in October show that millions of people across southern Africa are going hungry due to a historic drought, risking a full-scale humanitarian catastrophe. After October, rice and maize planting will start in Southern Africa, barley and wheat will be planted in Algeria, and winter wheat will be planted in Lebanon. If the drought continues, the risk on food security would be significant in the future. 

Reference

https://reliefweb.int/report/sudan/sudan-famine-ipc-dg-echo-echo-daily-flash-02-august-2024

https://reliefweb.int/report/madagascar/madagascar-food-insecurity-integrated-food-security-phase-classification-echo-daily-flash-02-august-2024

https://reliefweb.int/report/eswatini/eswatini-food-insecurity-integrated-food-security-phase-classification-echo-daily-flash-02-august-2024

https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-calls-international-support-crisis-deepens-syria-amid-influx-families-fleeing-war-lebanon

https://www.wfp.org/news/japan-provides-us2-million-assist-people-impacted-recent-conflict-lebanon

https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-launches-emergency-food-operation-reach-one-million-people-affected-conflict-lebanon

https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157981/

https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157985/

https://www.wfp.org/news/millions-people-risk-going-hungry-southern-africa-enters-lean-season

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/15/worst-drought-in-century-devastates-southern-africa-with-millions-at-risk

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1152936

https://reliefweb.int/report/lesotho/lesotho-food-insecurity-ipc-integrated-food-security-phase-classification-echo-daily-flash-20-august-2024

https://reliefweb.int/report/namibia/namibia-food-insecurity-dg-echo-integrated-food-security-phase-classification-echo-daily-flash-20-september-2024

https://fews.net/southern-africa/alert/august-2024

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/brazil-drought-dries-river-stops-shipping-key-grains-corridor-2024-09-25/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=Sustainable-Switch&utm_term=092724&user_email=7f12bc1803a70025864894c51a4874d86e9e31943e754072ed0077d40c19c970&lctg=63ef5b58685c4ad3e002914f

https://apnews.com/article/paraguay-river-drought-amazon-fires-climate-change-deforestation-shortage-ce7bb22855f6ed9af43381aa246c7d30

https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/08/1153546?utm_source=UN+News+-+Newsletter&utm_campaign=36226c8767-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2024_08_27_12_00&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_fdbf1af606-36226c8767-%5BLIST_EMAIL_ID%5D

https://apnews.com/article/flood-bangladesh-india-tripura-relief-575e7fe9bc86625b957c32acfc2393f3

https://watchers.news/2024/08/13/monsoon-death-toll-hits-58-while-excess-rain-damages-80-000-ha-198-000-acres-of-crops-in-karnataka-india/

https://reliefweb.int/report/philippines/philippines-taiwan-china-tropical-cyclone-gaemi-update-gdacs-dromic-dswd-media-echo-daily-flash-29-july-2024

https://reliefweb.int/report/india/india-monsoon-rains-reliefweb-media-imd-india-echo-daily-flash-18-july-2024

https://reliefweb.int/report/myanmar/myanmar-floods-dg-echo-un-ocha-noaa-cpc-echo-daily-flash-18-july-2024

https://reliefweb.int/report/china/china-severe-weather-and-dam-breach-cma-china-meteorological-administration-media-media-echo-daily-flash-08-july-2024

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cw0y6wwn9yyo

https://www.unhcr.org/news/briefing-notes/sudan-rainy-season-ushers-severe-floods-worsens-plight-thousands-displaced-war

https://reliefweb.int/report/ethiopia/ethiopia-floods-dg-echo-partners-local-authorities-echo-daily-flash-19-august-2024

https://apnews.com/article/nigeria-floods-nema-rainfall-ac43d75837c6a990e5ad524089c9292f

https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/humanitarians-sound-alarm-impact-flooding-across-west-and-central-africa-more-700000-people-affected-year-already

https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2024-000169-aut

https://reliefweb.int/map/czechia/europe-severe-weather-and-floods-dg-echo-daily-map-27092024

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvgxv8n7wd0o

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/clywk7nzqjvo

https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/bolivia-battles-record-wildfires-with-worst-likely-ahead-2024-08-01/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/25/ecuador-battles-wildfires-near-capital-as-drought-grips-south-america

https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/smoke-canadian-wildfires-reaches-europe?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTEAAR1ZtHp3G5OHURIapR8tEoNzH1aDRxAypMYkQl_CpT7Dy5Iw8UNNvMuCunA_aem_MjckBBkBgsjR5nYe0Jt-Gg

https://www.fao.org/locust-watch/information/news/en

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153447/intense-widespread-drought-grips-south-america

https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/west-and-central-africa-flooding-situation-overview-31-october-2024

https://www.climatecentre.org/14364/22-july-2024-worlds-hottest-day-culminates-a-month-of-heat-and-fire/

Severe drought has returned to the Amazon. And it's happening earlier than expected". CNBC. Associated Press. 2024-08-04. Retrieved 2024-08-23.