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Authors: lijunbin | Edit: lirui
Kenya undergoes two distinct rainy seasons, with the long rains season occurring from March to late May and the short rains season from late October to December. Maize cultivation takes place during both the long and short rains, while wheat is mainly grown during the long rains. This monitoring period is from July through October 2024, focusing on the critical growth and harvest stages of wheat and long rains maize.
At the national level, Kenya is facing scarce precipitation and relatively severe drought conditions. During the current monitoring period, precipitation was 158 mm, which is higher than last year, but 51% below the 15-year average (15YA). The temperature (+1.1°C) during the monitoring period was above the 15YA, with many days close to the 15-year maximum, indicating that Kenya is experiencing continuous high temperatures. The solar radiation was slightly above average by +4%. These indicators led to a 16% reduction in potential BIOMASS.
The maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.92. The cropping intensity reached 133%, and the cropped arable land fraction (CALF) incresed by 12% compared to the 5-year average (5YA) level. The CPI was 1.10. The NDVI development graph indicates that NDVI was above the 5YA throughout the monitoring period and even exceeded the 5-year maximum in August, indicating good agricultural production conditions. However, conditions varied greatly within the country. Although the current drought conditions have slowed down crop growth to some extent, the rainfall and crop growth condition were favourable during the previous monitoring period (April-July 2024). Rainfall was relatively abundant, supporting strong initial growth for both maize and wheat, which helped them better resist the following drought. As shown by the Maximum VCI graph, most of Kenya's cropland shows VCIx greater than 0.5, with the best growth located in the highland agricultural zone of central Kenya, where VCIx is greater than 0.8. As to the spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA and NDVI departure profiles, it shows that about 47.8% of the farmland crops were above the average level throughout the monitoring period, mainly concentrated in the highland agricultural zone; 43.8% of the areas were close to the average level, primarily located in Western Kenya. About 8.4% of the cropland located in the eastern coastal region was below the average level. Overall, crop growth was favorable in central and western Kenya with more sufficient rainfall conditions, while crop growth was poor in the eastern coastal region.
Regional analysis
Considering cropping systems, climatic zones, and topographic conditions, Kenya can be divided into four distinct sub-national agro-ecological regions: the Coast Region(113), the Highland Agriculture Zone (114), the Northern rangelands(115), and the South-west region (116).
In the Coast region, compared to 15YA, the rainfall was below average (-21%), and temperature was slightly lower by -0.8°C, with RADPAR incresed by +5%, resulting in near average in BIOMSS. The CALF was 84% and the VCIx was 0.72. The CPI was 0.93. According to the crop condition development graph, it shows that NDVI was lower than the 5YA during the monitoring period. It was consistently declining. Overall, the crop production condition was poor during the monitoring period.
In the Highland agriculture zone, compared to 15YA, the rainfall was significantly below average (-50%), and the temperature was higher (+1.1°C) and RADPAR was above average by +5%. These indicators led to BIOMSS(-16%) below the average. The CALF was 90%, and the cropping intensity was 136% close to the average, indicating normal land use efficiency. The VCIx was 0.97.The CPI was 1.16. As shown in the crop condition development graph, the NDVI was above the the 5YA during this monitoring period. Despite the below average rainfall, the crops benefited from the favorable rainfall in the previous monitoring period and the crops had healthy root systems and were resistant to drought, resulting in good crop production during the current monitoring period.
In the Northern rangelands, compared to 15YA, the rainfall was below average (-29%), the temperature was warmer (+1.1°C) and RADPAR was above average by +3%. Under these conditions, BIOMSS was 6% below the average. The CALF was 67%, which is 13% higher than the 5YA, and cropping intensity was 148%, indicating an efficient use of cropland. The VCIx was 0.83. The CPI was 1.19. The crop condition development graph indicates that NDVI was above the 5YA during this monitoring period. Benefiting from adequate rainfall during the initial growing period, the crops got well established and were able to withstand the drought conditions to some extend. Overall, the crop production condition was normal.
In the South-west region, compared to 15YA, the rainfall (-87%) was significantly below average, and the temperature was higher(+1.5°C) and RADPAR was lower (-3%). Under these conditions, BIOMASS was 49% below the average. The CALF was 100%, and the cropping intensity was 103%, indicating normal land use efficiency. The VCIx was 0.85. The crop condition development graph shows that NDVI was generally close to the 5YA throughout the monitoring period and the CPI was 0.96, indicating normal crop conditions.
(a) Phenology of major crops
(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI
(c) Time series rainfall pofile
(d) Time series temperature pofile
(e) Maximum VCI
(f) Spatial distribution of NDVI profiles and NDVI departure profiles
(g) National CPI time series graph
(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Coast, right:Highland Agriculture Zone)
(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI(left:Northern rangelands, right:South-west)
Table 3.1 Kenya's agro-climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 15YA, July‐October 2024
Region | RAIN | TEMP | RADPAR | BIOMSS | ||||
Current | Departure | Current | Departure | Current | Departure | Current | Departure | |
Coast | 183 | -21 | 25.3 | 0.8 | 1303 | 5 | 839 | -0 |
Highland agriculture zone | 169 | -50 | 19.5 | 1.1 | 1219 | 5 | 566 | -16 |
nothern rangelands | 180 | -29 | 23.8 | 1.1 | 1291 | 3 | 681 | -6 |
South-west | 62 | -87 | 20.7 | 1.5 | 1209 | -3 | 474 | -49 |
Table 3.2 Kenya's agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departures from 5YA, July‐October 2024
Region | CALF | CI | Maximum VCI | CPI | ||
Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current(%) | Departure from 5YA(%) | Current | Current | |
Coast | 84 | -5 | 162 | 5.88 | 0.72 | 0.93 |
Highland agriculture zone | 90 | 19 | 136 | 0.29 | 0.97 | 1.16 |
nothern rangelands | 67 | 13 | 148 | 8.35 | 0.83 | 1.19 |
South-west | 100 | 0 | 103 | -16.53 | 0.85 | 0.96 |