As shown on the penology map, the main crops in Syria include wheat and barley. During the current reporting period from July to October, most land was left fallow until the sowing of the winter cereals started in October. The proportion of cropland (rain-fed and irrigated) in Syria is about 32.8% and regular rainfall is crucial for crop growth because of most of the cropland in Syria is rain-fed.

The CropWatch agronomic Indicator shows that the Crop Production Index (CPI) in Syria was 0.9,The average maximum VCI reached a value of 0.42. The spatial distribution shows that the VCI values between 0.2 and 0.8 account for the largest proportion of the area, and they are distributed throughout Syria. As shown in the crop condition development graph and the NDVI profiles at the national level, NDVI values were close to average in monitoring period. These observations are confirmed by the clustered NDVI profiles: 58.2% of regional NDVI values were above average from July to Oct, 41.8% of regional NDVI values were significantly below average throughout this monitoring period. These observations are confirmed by the lower VCI values shown in the maximum VCI map. CALF during the reporting period was 8%, which was 13% higher than the 5YA average.

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators show that the rainfall and RADPAR were both less than the 15YA average (ΔRAIN -78%; ΔRADPAR -1%), the temperature was above average (ΔTemp +0.6℃;). Rainfall usually starts to pick up in October. However, October rains were minimal. This has a negative impact on land preparation for sowing of the winter crops.

Regional analysis

Based on cropping systems, climatic zones and topographic conditions, five sub-national agro-ecological regions can be distinguished for Syria, among which three are relevant for crop cultivation: The first (a) (220) and first (b) region (221), the second region (222), the third (223) and the fourth region (219).

First Zone is the most important zone of Syria: The area had a CALF of 57, 5 for two (a, b) region. It increased by 7% and 31% compared to the past 5YA average. The VCIx was 0.8, 0.66 and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.9, 1.08. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were generally above average in late July and Aug close to average in Early July and late oct low average in mid late Aug and Sep for a region, close to average for b region. Rainfall was less than average (ΔRAIN -69%, -75%) for two regions, and temperature was close to the average, radiation also (ΔRADPAR -1%, 0%) was close to average. Their combined effect decreased BIOMSS by 17% as compared to the average.

Second, third and fourth zones: The CropWatch agronomic Indicator shows that these regions have a low CALF (1%, 2%, 3%), it increased by 14% compared to the past 5YA average for second zone, 11% for third zone and decreased by 1% for fourth zone. The VCIx was 0.42, 0.27, 0.18 respectively and Crop Production Index (CPI) was 0.78, 0.65, 0.83. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were close to the 5YA in monitoring period for 3 zones.

Badia zone: had a desert climate, the CALF was (7%), it increased by 44% compared to the 5YA average, and the VCIx was 0.32. The crop production index of the Badia region was 1.13. As shown in the crop condition development graph (NDVI), the values were generally close to the 5YA average, Rainfall was less than average (ΔRAIN -95%) and temperature and radiation were close to average (ΔTEMP +0.5%; ΔRADPAR 0%), As a result, the BIOMSS was decreased by 31% compared to the average.

Figure 1. Syria’s crop condition, July – Oct 2024

(a). Phenology of major crops

(b) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI

(c) Maximum VCI

(d) Rainfall profiles

(e) Temperature profiles

(f) Spatial NDVI patterns compared to 5YA

(g) NDVI profiles

(h) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The first (a) region)

(i) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The first (b) region)

(j) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The second region)

(k) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The third region)

(l) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (The fourth region)

(m) Crop condition development graph based on NDVI (Badia region)

(n) CPI time series graph

Table 1. Syria agro climatic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from July to October 2024

Table 2. Syria, agronomic indicators by sub-national regions, current season's values and departure from 5YA, July to October 2024