The global Crop Production Index (CroPI) for January-March 2025 shows a 'strong south, weak north' pattern, with Northern Hemisphere CroPI falling below baseline for the first time in five years, to 0.98, while Southern Hemisphere remains at 1.03. During this period, 34% of global agricultural areas received precipitation 30% below normal, while 59% experienced temperatures 1.5°C above normal, expanding areas under heat and drought stress from 20.7% in January to 37.7% by mid-March.

Major crop production outlook reveals significant regional variations (Table A1.1). Northern Hemisphere winter wheat area increased slightly (1.6%), but yields fell by 7.7%, resulting in 6.3% lower production at 514.25 million tons. South American soybeans performed well with Brazil and Argentina achieving 211.62 million tons (9.2% increase), while maize production is expected to reach 170.78 million tons (3.7% decrease). China's summer grain production is expected to reach 146.18 million tons (0.8% increase), while winter wheat production is projected at 132.93 million tons, up 1.2% compared to the previous year. The winter wheat shows characteristics of 'increased area, slightly decreased yield, stable to slightly increased total production'. India faced severe high-temperature drought, with precipitation 47% below the long-term average and temperatures 2.2°C above normal, resulting in wheat yields decreasing by 13.1% and total production declining by 7.8%. As of April 22, planting progress of early rice reached 84% in Guangxi and 87% in Guangdong, China, while U.S. crop planting ratio is only 33%, down 12% from previous years, possibly affected by both lower temperatures and trade friction caused by tariff policies. .

Climate anomalies have heightened agricultural risks, with once-in-ten-year droughts occurring in the Eurasian heartland, south-central U.S., South China, and parts of eastern Brazil. Southeast Asian countries were severely affected by El Niño, with rice production in Indonesia and Bangladesh decreased by more than 12%. The mid-March temperature anomaly event in the Northern Hemisphere posed additional risks to winter wheat, corn, and rice in the western United States, western Europe, and North China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China, with some regions facing at least once-in-five-year temperature stress anomalies.

For 2025, water resource management and drought response remain key challenges. La Niña has ended, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected throughout Northern Hemisphere summer. PDSI forecasts indicate potential improvement from moderate to mild drought in global rainfed areas by May-June, though conditions may worsen in central and northern Europe, western India, southern Ukraine and Russia, and eastern China, requiring strengthened monitoring and early warning, optimized resource allocation, and improved climate adaptability and risk resistance capacity of agricultural systems.