Bulletin
CropWatch bulletinMenu
Authors: zhuweiwei | Edit: zhuweiwei
Leveraging the CropWatch cloud platform, which integrates multi-source satellite remote sensing data, ground observations, and meteorological data, the report systematically assessed the dynamic changes in staple grain and oil crop production in 89 countries worldwide from September to November 2025, summarized the global major and oilseed crop production, and food security status for the year 2025, and analyzed the impact of extreme weather events which significantly influence agricultural production. It also focused on fine-scale remote sensing monitoring and verification of crop area, yield, production and annual summarization in key countries, including Argentina, Brazil, China, India, Russia, the United States, and other major crop producing countries. Additionally, the report also provided forecasts for rice in equatorial regions and wheat in the Southern Hemisphere. The main conclusions are summarized as follows:
From September to November 2025, the global crop production index (CroPI-9) reached 1.08, continuing to remain above the baseline of 1.0. This marks an extension of the steady recovery trend observed since 2024, forming an overall pattern characterized by "distinct regional disparities and significant internal divergence among major crop producing areas". Globally, agro-meteorological conditions leaned toward dryness, with the risk of cropland water stress showing a trend of "declining first and rising later," displaying a pronounced two-pronged divergence: major crop production regions in the Americas and Africa faced drought, high temperatures, and hydrothermal imbalance; while persistent rainfall and widespread cooling across most agricultural areas in China and its East Asian neighbors posed multiple challenges to the sowing and growth of overwintering crops. Rice production in equatorial and adjacent monsoon regions exhibited a complex profile of "high spatial variability, where challenges coexist with resilience". The performance of major crop producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere varied significantly due to differing meteorological conditions. Although the total harvested area of winter wheat contracted slightly, the overall crop production in the Southern Hemisphere is projected to increase by approximately 4.3%, primarily driven by higher yields. Overall, the impact of extreme weather events on the production of major grain and oil crops was weaker than in the previous year. Going forward, continued attention is required on the effects following the onset of La Niña on global and regional precipitation and temperature patterns, as well as on the potential impacts of non-climatic factors, such as trade policies, on the food market.
2025 marked a critical turning point for global grain production, transitioning from a prolonged downturn to a steady recovery. The annual global Crop Production Index (CroPI-2025) reached 1.05, exhibiting a distinct trend of "starting low, moving high, and climbing steadily" throughout the year. Concurrently, the global risk of cropland water stress exhibited an overall declining trend. In a word, global major and oilseed crop production in 2025 reached 3.31332 billion tons, an increase of 52.48 million tons year-on-year, up 1.6%. Among them:
Wheat: 822.66 million tons, down 4.41 million tons (-0.5%).
Maize: 1.19629 billion tons, up 21.34 million tons (+1.8%). Favorable agro-meteorological conditions during the later growth stages of U.S. corn contributed to a year-on-year increase in production, making the United States the primary driver of global corn output growth.
Rice: 858.23 million tons, up 22.38 million tons (+2.7%).
Soybeans: 436.14 million tons, up 13.16 million tons (+3.1%).
China's total crops production remained generally stable in 2025, maintaining historically high levels. The crop production profile was characterized by favorable overwintering conditions for winter crops, fluctuating but generally improving conditions from peak growth to maturity, and overall normal conditions for summer crops production. Based on the latest remote sensing data and verification with ground measurements, China's total crops output for 2025 is estimated at 679.07 million tons, down 311 million tons (-0.5%) year-on-year. Among them:
Winter crops: 145.16 million tons, up 0.14 million tons (+0.1%). Wheat production was 137.74 million tons, up marginally by 0.4%. Early rice production reached 28.32 million tons, an increase of 3.5%.
Summer crops: 505.59 million tons, down 4.22 million tons (-0.8%). The production of maize declined compared to 2024, primarily due to prolonged rainy periods and waterlogging during the harvest season, which impeded harvesting in regions such as the Huang-Huai-Hai area, Shaanxi, and Shanxi. Single rice/semi-late rice, and late rice production was below 2024. National soybean output reached 19.15 million tons, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 2.7% and representing the highest growth rate among the four major crops.
