During the September–November 2025 monitoring period, the Global Crop Production Index (CroPI-9) stood at approximately 1.08, remaining consistently above the baseline of 1.0 and extending the steady recovery trend observed since 2024. Following the fluctuations and lows of 2021–2023, the global agricultural system demonstrated strong resilience in 2025, with overall production levels reaching a five-year high for this period (Figure 1.1). Despite the positive global average, the spatial pattern revealed significant regional disparities, with major producing areas constrained by the marked differentiation of hydrothermal matching conditions.

Figure 1.1 Time Series Trends of Global and Regional CroPI, September–November 2020–2025

Spatially (Figure 1.2), the CroPI-9 for the September–November 2025 period exhibited the following notable characteristics:

North America: Optimistic in the North-Central, Moisture Pressure in the Southwest

A longitudinal gradient was evident within North America's major producing regions. The north-central Great Plains and the core Corn Belt (Iowa, Illinois, etc.) performed exceptionally well, with CroPI-9 values generally ranging from 1.25 to 1.50, and exceeding 1.50 (dark green) in localized areas, signaling a strong finish for the autumn grain season. In contrast, parts of the southwestern United States and Mexico were affected by persistent moisture deficits, with CroPI-9 appearing as continuous orange patches (0.50–0.85), impacting winter wheat sowing and seedling growth.

South America: Favorable in the Pampas, Persistent Drought in Brazil's Main Producing Areas

South American production areas showed a north-south split. The southern Pampas of Argentina and Uruguay displayed widespread high-value zones (CroPI-9 >1.50), where superior hydrothermal combinations favored winter wheat yield formation and the timely sowing of summer crops. Meanwhile, north-central Brazil (major soybean regions such as Mato Grosso and Goiás) and northern Argentina remained plagued by drought and heat stress, with CroPI-9 values mostly falling within the suboptimal range of 0.50–0.85. This "dry start" to the season increases growth uncertainty for soybeans and first-season maize.

Eurasia: Robust in China and Western Europe, Restricted in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Fringes

Agricultural regions in China performed excellently overall, with CroPI-9 values in the Northeast, the North China Plain, and most of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River ranging from 1.15 to 1.50; adequate soil moisture supported seedling development for winter crops. Production in Western Europe (France, Germany, and the UK) remained largely stable, with CroPI-9 maintained between 1.05 and 1.25. However, due to severe autumn precipitation deficits, the Mediterranean coast (Spain, Italy), Turkey, and the northern Black Sea coast (southern Ukraine and southwestern Russia) saw CroPI-9 values below 0.85, posing high risks for the sowing, emergence, and early growth of autumn-sown crops.

Oceania: Exceptional in the Southeast, Stable in the West

The Australian agricultural belt demonstrated strong production stability. The Southeast (Victoria and New South Wales), driven by favorable precipitation, recorded CroPI-9 values in the high range of 1.25 to 1.50. In the major grain-producing regions of Western Australia, CroPI-9 values were primarily distributed between 1.00 and 1.15, with slight fluctuations in some areas (0.95–1.00). This indicates that while the performance was not as robust as in the Southeast, the overall production situation remained at a normal level, as the impact of earlier drought was effectively mitigated during the monitoring period.

Africa: Highly Fragmented Spatial Patterns with Significant Internal Divergence

CroPI-9 across the African continent was characterized by a highly fragmented, patchy distribution. Production conditions in coastal North Africa were generally poor (CroPI-9 < 0.85). Sub-Saharan regions exhibited intense spatial polarization: West Africa showed a latitudinal "strong North, weak South" gradient, and East Africa displayed fragmented growth patterns. Southern Africa presented a sharp contrast—the core grain belt in eastern South Africa showed favorable growth (CroPI-9 > 1.25), whereas neighboring Zimbabwe and the fringes of South Africa suffered from severe moisture deficits. Against a macro-background of widespread precipitation shortages and declining potential biomass across the continent, the stability of growth in locally favorable areas remains at risk.

Figure 1.2 Global CroPI-9 Spatial Distribution Map, September–November 2025