During the monitoring period, global agrometeorological conditions showed a distinct polarization: major producing regions in the Americas and Africa faced drought, high temperatures, and hydrothermal imbalance, while most of Eurasia enjoyed abundant moisture and suitable temperatures. Compared with the 15-year average, global temperatures during this period were characterized by "widespread warmth with significant high heat in core zones." The specific combination of temperature and precipitation dominated the spatial distribution of potential biomass (Figure 1.3).

Figure 1.3 Departure Anomalies of Global Agrometeorological Indicators, September–November 2025 (Precipitation, Temperature, Photosynthetically Active Radiation, Potential Biomass)

The Americas: Combined Drought–Heat Stress and Suppressed Potential

North-central and eastern North America and north-central South America experienced severe "hydrothermal imbalance." Precipitation was generally low (<-30%) in the eastern United States and Brazil's main producing areas, accompanied by the aforementioned extreme warmth (≥1.5°C) and anomalously high Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) (≥10%). This combination of "high radiation, high temperature, and low rainfall" led to a sharp decline in Potential Biomass (BIOMSS) (<-10%, red areas) in these regions. Particularly in Brazil's soybean belt, intense evapotranspiration rapidly depleted soil moisture, limiting the early growth potential of summer crops.

East Asia: Warm, Wet, and Low Radiation with Rising Potential

China and neighboring East Asian countries exhibited typical "warm and wet" characteristics. Precipitation was significantly above average (>30%) in most agricultural areas, with temperatures 0.5–1.5°C warmer. Although persistent cloudy and rainy weather resulted in low PAR (<-10%), the ample water supply effectively eliminated drought constraints, driving a counter-trend increase in potential biomass of ≥10% in the region. This configuration, where "water and heat compensate for low light," favored the vegetative growth of winter wheat before overwintering, though attention is needed regarding risks of excessive growth and pests/diseases in high-humidity environments.

Europe: Stable West, Dry East

Western and Central Europe saw above-average precipitation and suitable temperatures, with stable-to-rising potential biomass. Conversely, the northern Black Sea coast (Ukraine, southern Russia) was dominated by precipitation deficits superimposed with slightly higher PAR, causing a ~10% decline in potential biomass. Attention must be paid to whether winter crops in this region can achieve compensatory recovery from spring rainfall.

Africa: Continent-wide Hydrothermal Imbalance

The African continent was one of the regions with the most severe global agrometeorological conditions during this period. From coastal North Africa and the Sahel to Southern Africa, precipitation anomalies were generally below -30% across the continent, accompanied by unusually strong radiation (PAR > 10%). Lacking moisture support, strong light and high temperatures (0.5–1.5°C) intensified ineffective transpiration from crops and soil surfaces, leading to a widespread decline in potential biomass across the continent (<-10%). This indicates that even where CroPI-9 appeared acceptable in some areas (e.g., eastern South Africa), the underlying meteorological conditions remain fragile and highly susceptible to subsequent precipitation fluctuations.

Overall, the global agrometeorological pattern from September to November 2025 poses multiple challenges for subsequent crop growth: North-central South America must receive saturating rainfall in the coming 1–2 months to offset the biomass deficit accumulated from the earlier "dry and hot" conditions; North America and Russia need to be alert to the risk of winterkill if winter crops face sudden cold snaps in January–February without sufficient snow cover amidst a warm winter background; Africa faces a critical turning point—North Africa urgently needs irrigation to save the winter grain sowing window, which is on the verge of closing, while Southern Africa requires continuous and stable rainy-season precipitation to prevent widespread soil moisture deficits from turning currently fragile early growth into substantial yield losses; East and South Asia are in the most favorable position, but management based on seedling status must be strengthened during the winter-spring transition to prevent damage from "late spring cold spells" to crops that have already experienced vigorous growth. Short-term stability of global food supply will depend heavily on the subsequent performance of the rainy season in the Southern Hemisphere.