From September to November 2025, rice production in the equatorial and adjacent monsoon zones exhibited complex characteristics defined by "high spatial differentiation and the coexistence of challenges and resilience." The spatial distribution of the Crop Production Index (CroPI-9) for this period (Figure 1.4) reveals extremely significant heterogeneity in the region: Northwestern India (states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan) displays large areas of deep green high values (CroPI > 1.50) due to surplus precipitation and sufficient irrigation. In sharp contrast, affected by severe post-monsoon precipitation deficits, contiguous orange (0.50–0.85) and even localized red (≤ 0.50) warning zones appeared in the middle and lower reaches of the Ganges Plain, the Central Plain of Thailand, around Tonlé Sap Lake in Cambodia, and along the Mekong River. During the monitoring period, major producing countries in South and Southeast Asia were in the concluding phase of 2025 production or the transition between seasons. Despite widespread climatic stress, these nations maintained the overall stability of global rice supply amidst fluctuations, leveraged by area expansion and irrigation regulation.

• Figure 1.4 Spatial Distribution of Crop Production Index (CroPI-9) in the Equatorial and Adjacent Monsoon Zone, September–November 2025

Production monitoring in the Indochina Peninsula highlights significant "area-driven" growth and "drought-stress-induced" yield reductions. Vietnam: From July to November 2025 (covering Summer-Autumn and Autumn-Winter rice), total rice production reached 8.08 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Although slightly lower average temperatures (-0.3°C) caused a slight decline in yield to 5,115 kg/ha (-1.9%), a significant expansion in rice planted area to 1,580 thousand hectares (+7.4%) effectively offset the negative impact of yield fluctuations. Thailand: Rainy season rice production from July to September 2025 faced severe pressure, with output falling to 22.91 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% year-on-year. CroPI-9 shows that Thailand's core rice-growing areas fell extensively into the orange (0.75–0.85) range, which aligns highly with the meteorological characterization of a 61.1% national precipitation deficit and a 29.7% sharp decline in potential biomass. Cambodia: Total annual rice production for 2025 is projected at 10.38 million tons, up 3.0% year-on-year. Although the CroPI-9 map shows significant drought stress (orange-red blocks) around Tonlé Sap Lake and the Mekong Valley, strong performance in the northern plains and northeastern regions, combined with a 1.7% national area expansion, supported positive annual production growth.

South Asia demonstrated strong "East-West differentiation." India's production situation was positive overall but with significant internal disparities. Its CroPI-9 distribution map shows polarization: the Northwest benefited from precipitation surpluses and established irrigation systems, with production potential at historically high levels (dark green); meanwhile, the Ganges Plain, a core agricultural belt, was hit by a severe 40.3% precipitation deficit, resulting in widespread contiguous orange-yellow warning areas. Nevertheless, India achieved production increases through a 3.4% expansion in planted area (reaching 53,164 thousand hectares) and a 2.9% yield improvement (4,833 kg/ha). India's total annual rice production for 2025 is projected to reach 256.94 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.4%.

Bangladesh's total annual production for 2025 is projected at 46.57 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.7%. Its CroPI-9 shows a scattered distribution in the lower Ganges, but thanks to early cooling after mid-October which alleviated evapotranspiration pressure, the harvest of rainy season rice was generally stable. Sri Lanka's total annual rice production for 2025 is projected at 2.39 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 1.3%. During the monitoring period, the country was transitioning between the rainy season harvest and dry season sowing. The CroPI-9 map shows the entire country dominated by green (>1.00), indicating better-than-average growth. Although abnormally intense precipitation in November (+22.9%) may have caused localized waterlogging and interfered with harvesting, excellent soil moisture conditions create a positive outlook for the upcoming 2025–2026 production season.

Overall, after experiencing severe moisture stress from September to November, the equatorial and tropical rice-growing regions maintained basic production stability through structural compensation in planted area and support from irrigation systems. However, yield reduction risks in localized drought areas of the lower Mekong and Ganges Plain still require attention in subsequent monitoring (Table 1.1).

Table 1.1 Rice Production and Year-on-Year Changes in Major Equatorial Countries During This Monitoring Period