In 2025, total winter wheat production in the Southern Hemisphere increased by 4.3% to 59.74 million tonnes, with the gain driven mainly by higher yields despite a slight contraction in total harvested area. Total planted area edged down by 0.5% to 21.741 million hectares, while average yield rose by 4.9% to 2,748 kg/ha. However, performance varied markedly across the main producing countries, reflecting differing climatic conditions during the growing season.

Australia, the dominant producer, showed resilience: wheat production rose by 3.3% to 28.82 million tonnes even though planted area fell by 2.3% to 12.341 million hectares. The improvement was entirely yield-driven, with average yield up 5.9% to 2,335 kg/ha. These gains were achieved under suboptimal weather conditions: precipitation was 34% below the long-term average (60 mm), while a moderate increase in radiation (+4%) and slightly cooler temperatures (-0.3°C) may have helped mitigate water-stress impacts, allowing yields to recover.

Argentina delivered the strongest performance, with production surging 11.2% to 21.83 million tonnes. This growth was supported by both area expansion (+4.7% to 6.323 million hectares) and higher yields (+6.2% to 3,453 kg/ha). Notably, these gains occurred under exceptionally dry conditions, with cumulative rainfall plunging 59% below average to just 79 mm and potential biomass down 26%. Warmer temperatures (+0.8°C) and increased  radiation (+6%) may have accelerated crop development, while favorable early-season soil moisture and irrigation likely underpinned the productivity increase this season.

By contrast, Brazil recorded the sharpest decline, with production contracting by 7.5% to 7.27 million tonnes. Both area (-4.6%) and yield (-3.1%) fell, reflecting highly unfavorable weather. Rainfall was 70% below normal (a deficit of 126 mm), the largest drop among the countries, and potential biomass plunged 41% to 559 g dry matter/m². Higher temperatures (+1.0°C) and increased  radiation (+8%) could not compensate for severe water stress, which clearly constrained wheat growth.

South Africa’s production decreased by 5.8% to 1.82 million tonnes due to a 6.4% drop in yield to 2,737 kg/ha, despite a slight increase in area (+0.6%). The country faced extreme rainfall deficits (-66% to 30 mm) and a 20% decline in potential biomass, only partly offset by cooler conditions and ample sunshine. The yield losses highlight the critical role of water supply in South Africa’s predominantly rainfed wheat systems.

Overall, the 2025 Southern Hemisphere winter wheat season illustrates the interplay between adverse climatic conditions and agricultural resilience. While Argentina and Australia offset significant rainfall shortfalls through improved management and area adjustments, Brazil and South Africa suffered production setbacks once water stress exceeded critical thresholds. Regional yield gains mask substantial weather-related risks, underscoring the importance of optimizing agricultural infrastructure and field inputs to sustain yield stability under increasingly variable climate conditions.

Table 1.2 Production Forecast of Major Winter Whaet Countries in the Southern Hemisphere