Based on the integrated short-term forecast for December 2025 and the long-term forecast for December 2026, rain-fed croplands globally are expected to face an overall recovery in precipitation but increased temperature volatility in the coming months (Figure 1.5). The Palmer Drought Severity Index indicates persistent mild drought conditions in global rain-fed agricultural zones. Compared to the period from September to November 2025, agricultural drought in north-central South America is projected to be mitigated, potentially reducing the risk of summer crop yield losses. Conversely, agricultural drought risk shows a increasing trend in southern North America, eastern Europe, Northeast China, southwestern India, and Thailand, making it crucial to focus on the replenishment of soil moisture by winter snowfall and rainfall.

The special attention should be paid to the following areas in the future:

1. Changes in winter precipitation (snow and rain) in water-limited regions, particularly within major agricultural zones across the Americas and Africa.

2. Risks associated with a higher overwintering pests and diseases, coupled with potential late-spring cold spells in East Asia and Western Europe, in the context of increased temperature volatility.

3. The global water allocation situation, specifically the reservoir storage levels and irrigation security capabilities in major irrigated areas.

4. The differential impacts of global precipitation and temperature anomalies—driven by the fluctuations of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation), including both La Niña and El Niño events—on key agricultural regions.

Figure 1.5 Monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for Global Rain-fed Agricultural Areas (March 2024 - February 2026)

Figure 1.6 Analysis of Predicted Differences Between the Periods of December 2025-January-February 2026 and September-November 2025