(1) Annual Overall Assessment: Emerging from the Trough, Resilient Recovery

2025 marked a critical turning point for global grain production, transitioning from a prolonged downturn to a steady recovery. Throughout the year, the 2025 annual value of the Global Crop Production Index (CroPI-2025) stood at 1.05, exhibiting a distinct trend of "starting low, moving high, and climbing steadily." In the first two months (January–February), the global index (CroPI-1) was only 0.97—a marginal improvement over the historical lows of 2024 but still below the baseline. Subsequently, during the peak growing season in the Northern Hemisphere (March–July), it rebounded to the 1.00–1.05 range, reaching an annual peak of 1.08 during the autumn harvest and year-end period (September–November). This trajectory signifies the end of the downward cycle in global agricultural production that began in 2021, demonstrating strong resilience amidst complex climatic conditions. This recovery trend was firmly corroborated by final production data (see Section 1.2.2 for details).

Despite the positive overall annual situation, the global production landscape displayed a significant feature of "spatial polarization." Core producing regions represented by China, the central United States, and the Argentine Pampas benefited from favorable hydrothermal matching during critical growth stages, becoming the primary engines driving the rebound in global CroPI and increases in maize and soybean production. In contrast, Central Africa, the Mediterranean coast, and north-central Brazil were plagued by persistent "combined drought–heat stress," which significantly suppressed production potential (Figure 1.7).

Figure 1.7 Spatial Distribution Pattern of Global Crop Production Index (CroPI) for 2025

(2) Review of Phased Production Situations

Phase 1: Overwintering and Early Spring (January–April) — Pressure in the South, Buildup in the North

At the beginning of the year, global agricultural production faced severe challenges. The Southern Hemisphere was in a critical period for summer grains, but east-central Brazil and Southern Africa encountered severe drought and high temperatures (1.5–2.5°C above average), causing early CroPI-1 values to hover below 1.0 and putting pressure on Brazilian soybean and African maize supply chains. Meanwhile, the Northern Hemisphere experienced an unusually warm winter, which favored the green-up of winter wheat. However, spring drought warnings in the southern U.S. Great Plains and southwestern China introduced uncertainty into spring production. At this stage, the globe presented an initial pattern of "strong South, weak North," though the overall average remained at a critical recovery point.

Phase 2: Northern Hemisphere Growing Season (May–August) — High Temperatures Accompanied by Regional Differentiation

Mid-year, as summer crops in the Northern Hemisphere entered vigorous growth stages, the global index for May–June (CroPI-5) successfully broke through the baseline (1.04–1.06). The most prominent feature of this period was widespread high temperatures and low rainfall globally. Approximately 70% of agricultural areas saw temperatures more than 1.5°C above average, with significant precipitation deficits in the western U.S., the Mediterranean, and Central Asia. However, thanks to the application of agricultural technologies and enhanced Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) in some regions (generally increasing by 5–10%), the U.S. Corn Belt and major producing areas in Western Europe withstood the heat and drought pressure, achieving largely stable yields. Notably, abundant precipitation in North and Northeast China effectively alleviated early spring drought conditions, leading to a rapid improvement in crop growth.

Phase 3: Autumn Harvest and Year-End Outlook (September–December) — Confirmed Bumper Harvests, Lingering Concerns

By the year-end monitoring period (CroPI-9 reached 1.08), the Northern Hemisphere autumn harvest was largely settled. North-central U.S. and major producing regions in China all showed excellent harvest conditions with significantly increased potential biomass, laying a solid foundation for annual food security. The sowing of new-season crops in South America showed polarization: Argentina and Uruguay had a good start benefiting from returning precipitation, while Brazil's main soybean regions continued the drought logic from earlier in the year, facing the risk of a "dry start."

(3) Global Agrometeorological Conditions and Driving Mechanisms in 2025

The core keywords for global agrometeorological conditions in 2025 were "widespread warmth" and "hydrothermal imbalance."

• Temperature and Light: Temperatures remained persistently high throughout the year, with most major producing areas 0.5–1.5°C warmer than normal, accompanied by a general increase in Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR) (5–10%). In regions with sufficient moisture (e.g., East Asia, parts of the Americas), the "light-temperature effect" significantly promoted photosynthesis and biomass accumulation, serving as a key natural factor driving CroPI higher.

• Precipitation and Moisture Stress: Uneven precipitation distribution dominated regional yield differences. The southwestern U.S., northern Brazil, the entirety of Africa, and the Mediterranean coast saw precipitation anomalies below -30% for most of the year. In these regions, high temperatures and strong light intensified ineffective crop transpiration, leading to severe soil moisture loss.

• Impact of Extreme Events: The African continent experienced drought stress throughout the year, from drought in Southern Africa early in the year to sowing difficulties in North Africa at year-end, resulting in a significant reduction in climatic resources. In contrast, East Asia (especially China), while also experiencing phased high temperatures, effectively neutralized heat stress risks through a "rain-heat synchronization" compensation mechanism, becoming one of the regions with the highest annual climatic resource utilization efficiency.

(4) Summary and Outlook

In 2025, global grain production, after a difficult start early in the year, ultimately achieved a reversal and recovery relying on robust performance in core Northern Hemisphere producing areas and strong rebounds in parts of the Southern Hemisphere (such as Argentina). However, year-end meteorological indicators show that soil moisture deficits are accumulating in major producing zones across the Americas, Africa, and the Black Sea region of Europe. Whether north-central South America can offset moisture deficits in the coming rainy season, and whether Northern Hemisphere winter crops can withstand potential cold snaps against a backdrop of warm winters, will be key to determining if the global food production recovery trend can continue into 2026.