(1) An overall declining trend of drought risk based on crop water stress index in the global cropland

The impact of extreme weather events on the production of major grain and oil crops in 2025 was weaker than those in the previous year. Remote sensing monitoring of 8-day crop water stress index in the global cropland from January to November 2025 indicates an overall declining trend in the drought risk. Notably, the area of high-risk regions (with a return period of five years or more) showed a significant decrease after April, followed by a slight increase from October  (Figure 1.8). Based on remote sensing monitoring, CropWatch team aggregate global water stress in 2025 into three primary risk zones (Figure 1.9). The spatial distribution characteristics of these zones are as follows:

• Risk zone I (significant risk decline): The regions include southeastern China, eastern Europe, northwest Asia, and the southeastern United States. Since an abrupt change occurred in April 2025, these regions have exhibited a clear downward trend in water stress risk.

• Risk zone II  (stable but slightly increasing risk): The regions encompass Brazil, the northwestern United States, West African nations like Nigeria and Ghana, as well as parts of Central Asia and southern West Asia. The water stress risk level in these areas has remained around a baseline corresponding to a 2-3 year return period, showing overall stability but with slight indications of an increase.

• Risk zone III (Lowest Risk): The regions are mainly distributed in Northeast China, India and Southeast Asia, European countries like Spain and France, southern Africa, and Argentina in South America. Water stress risk in the cropland is the lowest globally.

The results of this study highlight the heterogeneity of water stress risk on a global scale, providing a scientific basis for zonal and categorized agricultural water resource management and drought risk prevention.

Figure 1.8 Changes in the areal extent of typical drought risk levels by crop water stress index in the global cropland (January - November 2025)

(a)  Drought risk zoning of crop water stress index based on global agricultural ecological regions

                                                  (b) Drought Risk Levels by Subregion

Figure 1.9 Global drought risk based on crop water stress index (January to November 2025)

(2) Expanding area of global cropland affected by high temperatures, with increasingly evident spatial clustering characteristics

The monitoring results of the average Temperature Condition Index (TCI) in the global cropland from January to November 2025 (Figure 1.10) indicate significant spatial heterogeneity in the impact of high temperatures on cropland. Major agricultural regions such as Eastern Europe, Western Asia, Southern China, and the Northern United States experienced relatively severe heat stress. In contrast, areas like Southwestern India and Northeastern South Africa were comparatively less affected by high temperatures. The analysis of TCI values ≤40 (typically indicating moderate or higher heat stress) reveals that the global proportion of cropland affected by high temperatures exhibited a pattern of being "relatively high at the beginning and end of the period but lower in the middle" – that is, higher from January-March and August-November, and relatively lower from April-July. However, the spatial distribution of affected cropland varied significantly across continents, with the following specific characteristics:

• Africa: The proportion of cropland affected by high temperatures remained the most stable among all continents, with minimal fluctuation.

• Europe: Europe had the highest proportion of cropland affected by high temperatures among all continents. This was particularly pronounced after August, entering the autumn season.

• North America: Spring was the period with the most dramatic changes in the area of cropland affected by high temperatures.

• Oceania: After April, the proportion of cropland affected by high temperatures in Oceania surged dramatically, increasing from the previous 30–40% to approximately 60%, representing the largest increase globally.

• Asia: The proportion of cropland affected by high temperatures in Asia rose from about 50% to 60% after July, which is closely linked to the severe heatwave and drought events that affected the region during the same period.

• South America: Since August, the area of cropland affected by high temperatures in South America showed significant fluctuations, rising to a level of 60% during October-November.

Figure 1.10 Global average Temperature Condition Index (TCI) in the cropland, weeks 1-48, 2025

Figure 1.11 Change in the areal proportion of global cropland affected by high temperature (TCI ≤ 40) in the cropland across diverse continents (January - November 2025)