The analysis in Table 1.3 details the impact of 2025 crop production on food demand. This CropWatch bulletin selected countries including Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, and Mozambique for analysis. Food demand was calculated as per capita food consumption multiplied by the population of that year. The results indicate that Afghanistan's food consumption demand for wheat exceeded its estimated production. Similarly, Sri Lanka's domestic rice production was insufficient to meet its food consumption demand, requiring imports (either commercial or food aid) to bridge the deficit. Lebanon's wheat production also failed to meet its food consumption demand for 2025.

Compared to 2024, the gap between domestic production and food demand widened further in 2025 for Afghanistan, Ethiopia. During this monitoring period, drought was the primary factor affecting food shortages in these countries.

Table 1.3 Food Balance Trends of Major Crops in Food-Deficit Countries (Unit: 10,000 tons)

Note: Food consumption is calculated as the product of each country's per capita food consumption for different crops (source: FAO) and its population. The 2025 population projections for each country are sourced from the UN Population Division.