The core keywords for global agro-meteorological conditions in 2025 was "widespread warmth with significant high heat in core zones". Although global grain production experienced a difficult start at the beginning of the year, the Crop Production Index (CroPI) demonstrated a distinct trend of "Emerging from the Trough, Resilient Recovery" throughout the year. Concurrently, the global risk of cropland water stress showed an overall declining trend, and the impact of extreme weather events on the production of major grain and oilseed crops was weaker than in the previous year. These factors ultimately contributed to a reversal and recovery in the global grain production situation for the year, reflected in an approximate 1.5% increase in total global output of major grain and oilseed crops. However, affected by drought, the gap between domestic crop production and food demand further widened in food-deficient countries such as Afghanistan, Ethiopia, and Sri Lanka.

The key to the global grain production outlook for the next quarter will depend on whether central and northern South America can effectively compensate for the current soil moisture deficit during the rainy season, and whether winter crops in the Northern Hemisphere can withstand potential cold waves against the backdrop of a warm winter. These two climatic factors will directly influence whether global grain production capacity can sustain its current momentum of recovery.