The 2025 agricultural season in Argentina was characterized by strong policy incentives, significant acreage expansion, and weather-driven fluctuations. Stimulated by deregulation policies, the national Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) remained 2% above the 5-year average, reflecting significantly improved land-use efficiency.

Throughout the annual growth cycle, the critical development period for soybeans and maize (January–March) experienced extreme weather volatility. High temperatures and low rainfall in January initially stressed soil moisture, followed by persistent heavy rainfall in March. While these rains alleviated earlier drought conditions, the excessive moisture and associated low solar radiation limited photosynthesis during the grain-filling stage. During the wheat growing season (September–November), conditions turned notably drier, with rainfall falling 59% below the 15-year average and temperatures rising by 1.5°C. Despite a 26% drop in potential biomass (BIOMASS), the season maintained a positive growth trajectory due to strong initial soil moisture reserves and resilient performance in core regions.

Figure 2.1. Soil Moisture Anomaly in Argentina from January to February 2025

2.1.1 Wheat Production Analysis

Between September and November 2025, Argentina's wheat production saw explosive growth in both area and yield. Monitoring data shows the total planted area reached 6.323 million hectares (+4.7%), while average yield rose to 3.45 t/ha (+6.2%), bringing total output to 21.83 million tonnes—an 11.2% increase (Table A.1.1). This growth was primarily driven by steady acreage expansion and regional resilience. Although the core Pampas region faced a 36% rainfall deficit, deep soil moisture reserves kept yields high. Simultaneously, the Semiarid Pampas showed high producer motivation, with CALF surging 24% above the 5YA, effectively using scale to mitigate the risks posed by lower rainfall.

Figure 2.2. Spatial distribution of wheat-planted area in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2025

Figure 2.3. Spatial distribution of wheat yield in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2025

2.1.2 Soybean Production Summary in 2025

As a maizeerstone of Argentine agriculture, the 2025 soybean season was defined by "acreage expansion offsetting yield declines." Driven by policy incentives, the soybean area expanded significantly to 18.69 million hectares, a 10.2% increase. However, persistent heavy rain and low light during the critical March grain-filling period hindered photosynthesis, causing average yields to drop to 2.27 t/ha (-6.4%). Supported by the robust increase in area, total output achieved a modest gain, reaching 42.41 million tonnes (+3.2%) (Table A.1.1).

2.1.3 Maize Production Summary in 2025

The 2025 maize season was characterized by "acreage contraction and yield recovery," with total production estimated at 52.79 million tonnes, an 11.4% decrease (Table A.1.1). The reduction in planting scale was the decisive factor, as the total maize area shrank to 8.092 million hectares (-16.5%). In terms of development, the March rains provided optimal soil moisture during the key yield-formation stage, supporting a yield recovery to 6.52 t/ha (+6.1%). While yields were strong, they could not fully compensate for the sharp decline in planted acreage.

Figure 2.4 Spatial Distribution of Soybean and maize Yield in Argentina

Summary and Outlook

Overall, the deregulation policies and anticipated adjustments to export taxes by the Argentine government in 2025 significantly bolstered planting intentions, ensuring production resilience even under unfavorable agro-climatic conditions. Looking toward the 2026 harvest, focus should remain on policy continuity and the recovery of soil moisture levels in the Pampas region to guide future planting decisions.