According to CropWatch monitoring, Brazil's 2025 agricultural production was characterized by "leading soybean yields, structural divergence in maize, and severe setbacks in wheat." Impacted by extreme drought in the South and shifting agro-climatic patterns in major producing regions, production remained robust during the summer growing season but suffered significant losses during the winter cycle. The national Crop Production Index (CroPI) reached a high of 1.15 during the summer but fell below the baseline during the wheat growing season.

From the perspective of the annual growth cycle, soybean and first maize development (December 2024 – February 2025) was bolstered by optimal rainfall and heat matching, resulting in strong crop performance. However, during the summer crop grain-filling and harvest period (March – April), late-season dry and hot weather caused the CroPI to retreat slightly from its peak. By the wheat growing season (September – November), Brazil experienced extremely dry conditions, with national cumulative rainfall falling 70% below the 15-year average and temperatures rising by 1.7°C. This moisture deficit led to a 41% drop in potential biomass and a 12% decrease in the cropped arable land fraction (CALF), highlighting the vulnerability of Brazilian wheat to extreme climatic stress.

2.2.1 Wheat Production Analysis

Brazil’s wheat production in 2025 faced a systemic decline. Cropwatch shows the planted area contracted to 2.413 million hectares (-4.6%), average yield fell to 3.01 t/ha (-3.1%), and total output dropped to 7.27 million tonnes (-7.5%)  (Table A.1.1). As Brazil’s core wheat-producing region, the state of Rio Grande do Sul experienced severe drought during the critical growth stage, with rainfall 35% below average. This extreme water shortage severely stressed crop growth, leading to a significant deterioration of agronomic indicators in the region and serving as the primary driver behind the national production slump.

Figure 2.5. Spatial distribution of wheat-planted area in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 2025

Figure 2.6. Spatial distribution of wheat yield in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 2025

2.2.2 Soybean Production Summary in 2025

As Brazil’s primary foreign exchange crop, soybean production in 2025 achieved a bumper harvest characterized by "slight area expansion and surging yields." Cropwatch indicates the planted area reached 42.041 million hectares, a 2.0% decrease. Benefiting from superior early-season growing conditions, the national average soybean yield reached 3.92 t/ha, a significant 9.9% increase compared to 2024. Driven by this strong yield growth, total production reached 164.63 million tonnes, a 7.8%  increase  (Table A.1.1).

Figure.2.7 Brazil major crop type map  and  soybean yield map during October 2024 to January 2025

2.2.3 Maize Production Summary in 2025

Brazilian maize production in 2025 exhibited structural differences, with total output slightly increasing by 0.2% to 100.92 million tonnes.  Due to structural adjustments, the planted area of first maize shrank significantly to 4.214 million hectares (-11.1%). Although yields improved to 7.60 t/ha (+7.5%), production still fell to 32.03 million tonnes (-4.4%). The cycle showed strong resilience in second maize; the planted area remained nearly flat, while yield grew 2.1%, resulting in a production of 68.91 million tonnes, which provided essential support for stable supply  (Table A.1.1).

Agricultural resource allocation in 2025 showed a clear preference in Brazil. Due to international wheat price volatility and rising costs, farmers prioritized soybeans with higher expected returns, leading to a significant decline in the wheat Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF). If soil moisture in the southern regions does not effectively improve, wheat planting area will remain under pressure in the coming season. It is recommended to continuously monitor rainfall recovery in southern states and its impact on the sowing of the 2026 first-crop cycle.