2.3 China

In 2025, China’s crop production remained stable overall, with output staying at historically high levels. The production landscape was characterized by favorable overwintering conditions , fluctuating but improving trends from peak growth to maturity stages for 2024-2025 winter cropping season, and generally normal conditions for summer cropping season. During the first monitoring period (November 2024 to January 2025), CroPI-Q1 reached an annual peak of 1.23; this, combined with a positive anomaly in the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) and strong performance in the Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx), established a positive foundation for winter crops production. In the second monitoring period (January to March 2025), low temperatures and drought during the green-up stage caused CroPI-Q2 to drop temporarily to 0.88, but conditions gradually improved from March to July, recovering to normal conditions. From the fourth to the sixth monitoring periods (July to November), CroPI (Q4-Q6) remained stable, slightly above the 1.0 baseline. This is mainly contributed by high VCIx. The stable CroPI underpins the overall stability of summer crops production. Overall, China’s crops production in 2025 remained steady after overcoming a series of adverse conditions.

Figure 2.8 Dynamics of China’s Crop Production Index (CroPI) and key contributing factors in 2025

2.3.1 Annual total crops production

Based on the latest satellite remote-sensing data and ground-truth measurements, China’s annual total crops output in 2025 is refined at 679.07 million tonnes, a year-on-year decrease of 3.11 million tonnes, or 0.5% drop from 2024 (Table A.1.2). Among this, total winter crops output was 145.16 million tonnes, up by 0.14 million tonnes year on year, a slight increase of 0.1%; early rice output was 28.32 million tonnes, up by 0.97 million tonnes, an increase of 3.5%. Affected by persistent rainy weather during the harvest season of summer crops and farmland waterlogging disasters in some regions, the harvest in the Huang–Huai–Hai region as well as Shaanxi, Shanxi and other areas was disrupted.  Summer crops were adversely affected and national summer crops output dropped to 505.59 million tonnes, down by 4.22 million tonnes year on year, a decrease of 0.8%.

In 2025, the eleven major winter crops producing provinces delivered favorable performance, with a combined output of 131.07 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, effectively offsetting the production shortfall in other minor producing areas. Regionally, although some areas experienced alternating drought and flooding during the rainy season, the major producing provinces achieved higher output by stabilizing planted area and boosting yield per unit area: winter crops output in Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu increased by 3.6%, 2.9%, and 2.2% year on year; Henan overcame the impacts of an abrupt shift from drought to flooding, with output up by 1.7%. In contrast, Gansu, Sichuan, and some other areas saw a slight decline in winter crops output due to unfavorable weather conditions during growing season.

In the main early rice producing areas of southern China, the overall matching of radiation, temperature, and water supply conditions during the growing season were favorable. Occurrences of late spring cold spells (“dao chun han”) and pests and diseases were relatively mild, and meteorological conditions during the maturation period were conducive to grain filling and harvesting. Among the major producing provinces, early rice output increased markedly in Jiangxi, Guangdong, and Guangxi, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 10.3%, and 8.5%, respectively; early rice production in Zhejiang and Hunan remained stable, with relatively small fluctuations in output.

National summer crops output in 2025 declined by 0.8% year on year, mainly dragged down by production reductions in parts of North China and Northwest China, while showing pronounced regional differentiation:

• The key agricultural producing role of Northeast China was further consolidated. Summer crops output in Heilongjiang and Jilin increased by 3.5% and 5.9% year on year, respectively; Liaoning was less affected by disasters, with output decreasing by 1.2%. Overall production growth in the Northeast effectively mitigated the pressure from output declines in other regions.

• Summer crops production in Northwest China increased significantly this year, mainly benefiting from irrigation optimization and favorable weather conditions. Total annual crops output in Ningxia and Xinjiang rose sharply year on year by 16.1% and 10.0%, respectively. However, Gansu experienced a 9.5% reduction in summer crops output due to meteorological stresses such as drought.

• In North China and the Huang–Huai region, summer crops production declined noticeably under the combined impacts of persistent rainy weather and extreme climate events during the harvest. Summer crops output in Hebei fell sharply by 12.2% year on year, and Shandong recorded a 10.3% reduction. Shanxi and Shaanxi also saw output declines to varying degrees. These were the main factors behind the slight drop in national summer crops production.

• In southern China, summer crops output in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Guizhou grew by 4.0%, 4.1%, and 3.7%, respectively, and Jiangxi and Zhejiang in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River also maintained relatively strong growth.

Overall, although China experienced extreme weather locally or periodically, resulting in slight fluctuations of the crop production, the total output increases in the core producing areas of Northeast and Northwest China, as well as in several southern provinces, demonstrated strong agricultural resilience and provided crucial support for safeguarding national food security.

2.3.2 Production of Major Cereals and Oil Crops in China

In 2025, the production of China’s major cereals and oil crops—maize, rice, wheat, and soybean—exhibited a mixed trend, with the aggregate production totaling 631.67 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.3 million tons or a decline of 0.4% (Table A.1.3). Specifically, total national maize production stood at 263.45 million tons, marking a decrease of 4.3 million tons (1.6%) compared to the previous year, whereas the total production volumes for rice, wheat, and soybean reached 211.33 million tons, 137.74 million tons, and 19.15 million tons, registering slight year-on-year increases of 0.4%, 0.4%, and 2.7%. Under the dual influence of extreme weather events and adjustments in planting structure, crop production demonstrated significant divergence in the variations of both yield and production across different provinces.

(1) Maize

Maize production in 2025 exhibited a distinct spatial pattern characterized by increases in the north and west contrasted with decreases in the south and east, where disaster-induced reductions in the Huang-Huai-Hai and Southwest regions notably weighed down the national total, while the Northwest and Northeast regions played a critical role in stabilizing production (refer to CropWatch Bulletin Vol. 25, No. 5 for details).

Specifically, summer maize in the Huang-Huai-Hai region was impacted by multiple meteorological disasters; most notably, record-breaking continuous rainfall in North China during the harvest period, compounded by heat stress during the flowering stage, resulted in reduced seed setting rates and insufficient grain filling. According to CropWatch monitoring data, Hebei and Shandong were the most severely affected, with production drop by 12.3% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively (Figure 2.9), followed by reductions in Henan (2.4%), Shanxi (3.6%), Shaanxi (3.1%), Anhui (1.6%), and Jiangsu (3.8%). Furthermore, within the Southwest region, regional weather conditions led to year-on-year production declines of 3.7% in Sichuan and 7.6% in Guizhou. The production drop in those abovementioned provinces were the primary drivers behind the decline in total national maize production.

Figure 2.9 Relative change in maize yield in Shandong in 2025 (compared to 2024)

In contrast, the Northeast and Northwest regions experienced robust growth in maize production, acting as a critical stabilizer by partially offsetting the production losses in other regions. During the summer and autumn, the four provinces of Northeast China benefited from favorable weather conditions; coupled with an expansion in maize planted area (Figure 2.10), the region maintained an overall trend of increased production, with remote sensing estimates projecting a total year-on-year increase of 5.15 million tons. Specifically, Heilongjiang, China's leading maize-producing province, achieved a production volume of 50.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, while production in Jilin and Inner Mongolia rose by 6.3% and 3.0%, respectively; despite a slight 1.1% decline in Liaoning, the overall growth trend of the Northeast remained unchanged. Meanwhile, the Northwest region delivered a remarkable performance attributed to favorable hydrothermal conditions and improved field management practices, with production in Ningxia and Xinjiang surging by 14.9% and 12.7% respectively, thereby providing a significant incremental supplement to the national maize output.

Figure 2.10 Remote sensing identification results of the spatial distribution of major crops in Northeast China in 2025

(2) Wheat

The total national wheat production in 2025 is projected to be 137.74 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 0.4%, remaining generally stable. The production situation in major producing areas was characterized by significant regional variations (refer to CropWatch Bulletin Vol. 25, No. 3 for details).

Regarding winter wheat, performance in the core Huang-Huai-Hai region was divergent. Hebei Province stood out with year-on-year growth in both planted area and yield, driving an increase of 0.84 million tons (6.7%) in total production, ranking first among major provinces in both absolute volume and growth rate. In contrast, Shandong suffered the most severe drought during the growth stage; its increased planted area failed to offset a 5.6% decline in yield, leading to a 1.7% drop in production. Furthermore, affected by adverse weather during the growing season, production in Jiangsu decreased by 3.9%, while Sichuan and Hubei also saw declines of 2.7% and 2.9% respectively. 

National spring wheat production is projected at 5.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons (1.4%), reflecting a shrinking planted area in northern China where spring wheat production has declined for consecutive years (refer to CropWatch Bulletin Vol. 25, No. 4 for details).

(3) Rice

National rice production for 2025 totaled 211.33 million metric tons, reflecting a modest year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Comprehensive monitoring results are detailed in the CropWatch Bulletin (Volume 25, Issues 3-5).

Annual rice production exhibited pronounced regional divergence. Production drop were primarily concentrated in the middle & lower reaches of the Yangtze River, where major producing provinces contended with compounded adverse meteorological conditions during critical growth phases, including excessive rainfall coupled with high temperatures and low photosyhthetic activeradiation. Significant declines were recorded in Anhui (6.4%) and Jiangsu (4.8%), with Hubei decreasing by 2.6%. This regional shortfall was effectively counterbalanced by a multipolar growth pattern observed elsewhere. In Northeast China, Heilongjiang and Liaoning reported robust growth of 3.6% and 7.0%, respectively, due to favorable crop conditions. Superior radition and thermal regimes supported substantial yield increases in the Southwest, with Chongqing, Sichuan, and Guizhou rising by 8.6%, 7.4%, and 13.1%. Increases ranging from 2.0% to 7.3% were also achieved in southern and coastal provinces, including Guangxi, Jiangxi, Fujian, and Zhejiang. This synergistic growth across multiple regions stabilized the national production base and facilitated the overall slight increase.

Refinement of late rice production in China's main producing provinces was conducted using high-resolution satellite remote sensing data and models. The results indicated that the final production surpassed earlier forecasts. The national sown area for late rice was approximately 7.22 million hectares, a slight 0.2% reduction from 2024. The average yield reached 5,407 kg/ha, down 0.6% year-on-year but higher than the October prediction. Total late rice output was around 33.89 million tons, a decrease of 0.28 million tons (0.8%) from the previous year, significantly less than the 2.0% decline forecasted earlier.

Regional disparities remained evident among major producing provinces. In the Yangtze River basin, late rice sown area decreased in Hunan but increased in Jiangxi, while yields in both provinces remained stable. Consequently, Hunan's total production decline moderated to 2.6%. Jiangxi offset a minor yield reduction by expanding its sown area by 3.1%, resulting in a net 1.1% output increase. Although yields declined in Hubei and Anhui, relatively stable sown areas led to more muted changes in total output. In South China, Guangdong and Guangxi experienced considerable area reductions of 5.5% and 4.2%, respectively; however, the associated yield losses were less severe than initially projected, demonstrating considerable crop resilience. Fujian witnessed growth in both area and yield, leading to a pronounced output increase.

The narrowing of the late rice production deficit is primarily attributed to improved hydrothermal conditions during the late growing period. CropWatch monitoring revealed generally favorable agro-meteorological conditions across southern China and the Yangtze River basin—key late rice regions—from September to November 2025. Despite localized drought stress, cumulative precipitation exceeded the average by 16% and 11% in these respective regions. Favorable levels of the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and CPI-Q6 indicated that water and heat supply during the grain-filling and maturity stages was overall conducive, mitigating the yield-limiting effects of earlier water stress.

(4) Soybean

China's soybean production in 2025 presented a favorable outlook, with total national output rising to 19.15 million metric tons, a 2.7% increase from the previous year. This growth rate was the highest among the four major crops monitored (CropWatch Bulletin, Volume 25, Issue 5).

The Northeast China region consolidated its role as the primary production hub, registering output growth across all provinces. Inner Mongolia led the national increase with a remarkable 9.4% surge. Heilongjiang, the largest soybean-producing province, recorded an output of 7.26 million tons, up 5.2%, constituting the most significant contribution to the national increase. Jilin and Liaoning also posted increased soybean production, up by 5.6% and 3.3%, respectively.

A more varied performance was observed in the Huang-Huai-Hai region and other production zones. Output increases of 5.5%, 4.2%, and 2.2% were reported in Shandong, Jiangsu, and Anhui, signaling positive local conditions, while Hebei registered a modest 1.5% rise. In contrast, production in Henan and Shanxi declined by 4.5% and 5.1%, respectively, attributable to adverse meteorological events. The robust expansion in Northeast China effectively offset losses in other regions, collectively propelling the national soybean output to a new high.

2.3.3 The Evaluation of Extreme Weather Events

(1) Alternating droughts and floods and high-temperature threats to cropland in southeastern China

CropWatch monitoring results (Figure 2.11) indicate that from January to November 2025, the risk of crop water stress and drought on national cropland exhibited a spatial pattern characterized by "generally suitable to wet conditions in the Northeast and Southwest, while high and highly fluctuating water stress risk in the Southeast". The probability of severe drought occurrence (with a return period ≥5 years) exceeded 30% in areas such as the central and western Loess Plateau, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, Guangxi, and Southern Xinjiang. In the Huang-Huai-Hai region and the eastern Sichuan Basin, the probability of severe drought occurrence surpassed 20%. Furthermore, the alternating drought and waterlogging events in the Southeast posed significant threats to the critical growth periods of both summer and summer crops crops.

Figure 2.11 Frequency of Drought Risk by Crop Water Stress Index on cropland in China (with a return period ≥5 years) (From January 1 to November 30, 2025, 42 episodes in total)

From September to October 2025, frequent rainfall occurred in many parts of Northern China. Multiple precipitation processes affected eastern Northwest China, southern North China, and the Huang-Huai region. Most areas received over 100 mm of precipitation, which was 1 to 4 times higher than the multi-year average for the same period. The number of precipitation days ranged from 20 to 30, exceeding the average by 5 to 18 days. The continuous rainy weather during the autumn harvest season adversely affected the harvesting, drying of summer cropss, and the sowing of winter wheat, posing multiple challenges to China's food security. As shown in the September-November precipitation anomaly map (Figure 2.12), precipitation in North China, eastern Northwest China, and most southern regions was higher than usual. Correspondingly, the risk of crop water stress and drought decreased significantly from September to November. Except for some areas like Inner Mongolia and parts of the southern coast where stress persisted, drought conditions in major agricultural regions such as North China, Southwest China, and the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River were significantly alleviated (Figure 2.13).

The widespread continuous rainy weather during the autumn harvest season in northern China has led to excessively high soil moisture in farmland, hindering the mechanical harvesting of summer crops crops and preventing the timely sowing of winter wheat. For household, the risk of mold formation is increased when corn cannot be dried after harvesting.

The continuous rainy weather during the autumn harvest has caused a reduction in corn yields in the eastern parts of Northwest China, the southern North China Plain, and the Huang-Huai-Hai region. This not only affects food supply but also heightens volatility risks in the national market. Harvest failure and mold risk due to continuous rainfall have degraded grain quality, further undermining the region's supply capacity. Additionally, this year's weather-induced losses may dampen farmers' willingness to plant in the future, leading to ongoing instability in production within major grain-producing areas.

Figure 2.12 Precipitation anomaly in eastern part of Eurasia from September to November 2025

Figure 2.13 Average Risk of Crop Water Stress Index (Sep-Nov 2025)

From January to November 2025, the average temperature in cropland areas across China was 1.2°C higher than the multi-year average for the same period. Against this climatic background, further analysis based on the remote sensing Temperature Condition Index (TCI) indicates that cropland in the Jianghuai region and the Sichuan Basin experienced frequent high-temperature threats. The compound effects of high temperature and drought significantly impacted crop growth.

Figure 2.14 Frequency of abnormal high temperature based on Temperature Condition Index (TCI) ≤40 for cropland in China (From January 1 to November 30, 2025, 48 weeks in total)

(2) Typical reservoirs in Western China maintain a sound water storage condition

Remote sensing monitoring by CropWatch reveals that over the past two years, reservoir water in Western China have been sustained at high levels this year. The observation encompasses typical oasis agricultural zones and the headwaters of major rivers. Specifically, from June to July 2025, Xiaohaizi Reservoir in the Tarim River Basin, Shuangta Reservoir in the Shule River during February-March, and Hongshiya Reservoir in the Shiyang River during April-May all maintained high water storage levels. Additionally, increased inflow in the upper reaches of the Yellow River led to expanded water surfaces in the Liujiaxia and Longyangxia reservoirs since April-May. Despite seasonal droughts and floods, the major reservoirs in western China effectively maintained their water storage capacity this year, playing a key role in safeguarding a stable water supply for oasis agricultural regions.

Figure 2.15 Remote sensing monitoring results of water surface areas in typical oasis agricultural areas and typical reservoirs in the upper reaches of major rivers in western China from 2024 to 2025

2.3.4 Outlook

According to the latest climate predictions, from December 2025 to February 2026, China's rain-fed farmland areas are expected to experience a climatic pattern where precipitation will be close to the climate average, but temperature fluctuations will increase. In this context, the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) is projected to show a declining trend. Therefore, the attention needs to be paid to the occurrence of winter precipitation (rain and snow) events from December to February and their role in replenishing soil moisture. Additionally, the continuous overcast and rainy weather during the autumn harvest period had already adversely affected the sowing of winter wheat, making it crucial to monitor the growth status of the wheat after its green-up phase in the following spring season.

Figure 2.16 The monthly changes of PDSI in China's rain-fed agriculture areas from March 2024 to February 2026