Agricultural production in Russia for 2025 was generally characterized by a "volatile start, mid-season pressure, and overall resilience." Throughout the annual growth cycle, the sowing and initial growth period for winter wheat (Q1: November 2024–January 2025) saw the Crop Production Index (CroPI) at a low level of 0.84 due to unfavorable conditions at the start of sowing. However, during the overwintering and green-up period (Q2: January–March), benefiting from a warmer-than-average winter (temperatures +1.35°C) and sufficient precipitation, CroPI jumped significantly to a high of 1.35, ensuring safe overwintering and a solid foundation for green-up. During spring sowing and early growth (Q3: March–May), meteorological conditions were generally stable, and CroPI settled back to 1.08, though the Cropped Arable Land Fraction (CALF) began to show regional declines. During the summer grain-filling and harvest period (Q4–Q5: May–September), influenced by precipitation deficits in southern major producing areas, CroPI stabilized at around 1.05. In the concluding phase of September–November 2025, although precipitation remained below normal (-16%), ample sunlight and temperatures close to the average resulted in potential cumulative biomass remaining near normal levels (-0.4%), and CroPI rose slightly to 1.13. The annual CroPI curve demonstrates that Russian agriculture possesses strong adaptability to localized adverse conditions following initial volatility (Figure 2.19).

Figure 2.19 Changes in Russia’s Crop Production Index (CroPI) in 2025

2.5.1 Analysis of Winter Wheat Production Situation and Regional Differences

As Russia's core grain crop, wheat production in 2025 presented a pattern of "area expansion but yield decline." CropWatch monitoring shows that Russia's wheat sown area increased by 2.9% year-on-year to 30.226 million hectares in 2025. However, dragged down by a yield decrease (-4.1%) in core producing regions, total national wheat output was 94.17 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.3% compared to 2024.

The primary drivers of yield fluctuation were meteorological conditions in the high-yield southern regions (Figure 2.20):

• Central Black Earth Region: During the critical wheat grain-filling period (May–July), yield potential was limited by below-average precipitation and insufficient soil moisture (PDSI -7.3).

• North Caucasus: This region saw the most significant yield decline. Precipitation from May to July was drastically lower by 46%, leading to a sharp drop in yield. Entering September–November, drought persisted with a precipitation deficit of 34.7% and temperatures significantly higher by 1.5°C, resulting in a VCIx of only 0.73, which affected the sowing of new-season winter wheat.

• South Caucasus: This region performed the best. Precipitation from September to November was 9.6% higher than normal, and VCIx reached 1.03, indicating vegetation conditions better than the best levels in recent years. Despite facing volatility from May to July, the overall annual production situation was robust.

Figure 2.20 Spatial distribution of wheat yield levels in Russia’s Central Black Earth and Caucasus regions (Left: 2024; Right: 2025)

In addition to wheat, yields for other major crops in Russia also showed slight declines in 2025. Total maize production was 14.81 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%; soybeans were more heavily impacted by summer moisture stress, with total production at 3.64 million tons, down 6.6% year-on-year.

Table 2.2 Estimated Production of Maize, Wheat, and Soybean in Russia for 2025 (Unit: million tons)

2.5.2 Outlook for 2026 Winter Wheat Planting

The period of September–November 2025 covered the sowing and seedling emergence stages for the 2026 winter wheat crop. CropWatch monitoring shows that the national average cooling rate during this period was faster than the historical average, especially from late October to November; the early arrival of winter conditions may have shortened the growth window for winter wheat before dormancy.

Nationwide, although the dry trend continued, precipitation was generally sufficient to meet seedling growth requirements. Analysis of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies indicates that vegetation performance in about 68.1% of monitored areas was close to or above normal. However, the North Caucasus remains a core risk area, where drought combined with a significant drop in CALF (-14%) resulted in weak emergence quality and fragile seedling conditions heading into overwintering. In contrast, Central Russia (temperature +1.1°C) and the Middle Volga (temperature +1.9°C) showed more robust performance, where a warm autumn favored an extended growing season and winter wheat seedling development. Overall, winter wheat in most agricultural regions has formed a good population foundation, providing a cautiously optimistic start for 2026 production. Future monitoring needs to focus on snow cover formation and the impact of extreme winter low temperatures on overwintering survival rates.