During the monitoring period (September to November 2025), according to the CropWatch phenological calendar, major grain and oilseed crops such as soybean and maize in the United States had mostly completed their harvest, while winter wheat entered the stages of sowing, emergence, and preparation for overwintering. By the end of November, maize and soybean harvesting was nearly complete nationwide. Winter wheat sowing had finished, and most fields had successfully emerged.. Based on these developments, the CropWatch system first conducted a comprehensive assessment of agrometeorological and crop conditions during this period. Then, the system reviewed and analyzed the dynamic changes in the yields of major U.S. grain and oilseed crops for 2025.

Figure 2.21 Crop Phenological Period in the United States from September to November 2025

2.6.1 Comprehensive Analysis of Agro-Meteorological and Crop Conditions in the Current Monitoring Season

Overall, benefiting from a notably increase in maize and soybean yields in 2025, the U.S. crop production outlook remains favorable, with the crop production index reaching 1.15, reflecting a high level of agricultural prosperity. However, during the monitoring period, the climate in the U.S. showed a pronounced “warmer and drier” trend. Precipitation was 34% below the 15-year average, temperatures were 5°C higher, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 24% higher than the 15-year average. Except for California, where precipitation was 84% above average, all other regions of the contiguous U.S. experienced below-average rainfall. Specifically, the Southern Great Plains, Southeast, Corn Belt, and Northern Great Plains had precipitation deficits of 40%, 35%, 34%, and 29%, respectively. In contrast, temperatures across all agricultural regions were significantly higher, with the Northern Great Plains, Southern Great Plains, and Corn Belt experiencing increases of 2.1°C, 1.8°C, and 1.5°C, respectively. Correspondingly, photosynthetically active radiation was 8% higher in the Corn Belt and 2% higher in the southern regions. As a major winter wheat-producing area, the Southern Great Plains experienced warmer and drier conditions, leading to excessively vigorous winter wheat emergence. This could accelerate soil moisture loss, which may adversely affect overwintering.

2.6.2 Summary of U.S. Major Grain and Oilseed Crop Production in 2025

In 2025, the overall growth of major crops in the U.S. was strong, with significant yield increases. Winter wheat saw a notable increase in yield per hectare, but total production grew only slightly due to a decrease in planting area. Maize demonstrated simultaneous increases in both planting area and yield per hectare, leading to record-high total production. Soybean planting area declined slightly, but yield per hectare increased modestly, resulting in a slight decrease in total production.

 Winter Wheat

In 2025, U.S. winter wheat yield increased by 3.39% compared to the previous year, reaching 5,715 kg/ha. However, due to a 3.07% reduction in planting area, total production only increased slightly to 74.77 million tons, a marginal increase of 0.21% year-on-year. Throughout the growing season, precipitation, temperature, and photosynthetically active radiation all exceeded the 15-year average for the same period, significantly promoting winter wheat growth and yield formation, which were the main drivers of the notable yield increase. 

Maize

In 2025, U.S. maize production showed a favorable trend, with simultaneous increases in both planting area and yield per hectare, leading to a substantial rise in total production. The planting area increased from 32,920 thousand hectares in 2024 to 34,675 thousand hectares, marking a 5.3% year-on-year increase. The average yield per hectare rose from 11,285 kg/ha to 11,669 kg/ha, reflecting a 3.4% year-on-year growth. The combined improvements in area and yield drove total production up from 37.15 million tons to 40.46 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. Despite regional drought disruptions during key growth periods, overall production stability in major producing regions remained strong, ultimately achieving significant yield gains. 

Soybeans

In 2025, U.S. soybean production showed a decrease in planting area, a slight increase in yield per hectare, and a slight decrease in total production. The planting area decreased from 36,457 thousand hectares to 35,611 thousand hectares, a 2.3% year-on-year decline. The average yield per hectare increased from 3,778 kg/ha to 3,809 kg/ha, a 0.8% increase. Due to the contraction in planted area, total production declined from 13.77 million tons to 13.56 million tons, a 1.5% decrease. Although the yield per hectare improved, the increase was insufficient to offset the production decline caused by the reduced area. 

Table 2.3 2025 U.S. Winter Wheat, Corn, and Soybean Yield Review