Slight drought in the global cropland

The global risk of water stress on farmland showed a trend of "first decreasing and then increasing" from September to November. There was a slight alleviation from September to October, followed by an intensification of drought conditions starting in November. Overall, the situation was at a slightly dry level, comparable to a once-in-two-years drought event. The proportion of area affected by drought with a return period of 2-5 years remained relatively stable, maintaining a level of 32.3% from early September to late November. In contrast, the area affected by drought with a return period of ≥5 years was 16.3% in early September, slightly decreased to 13.5% in early October, and then increased to 24.0% by late November. By late November, regions such as Central Asia, Northern Europe, and Southwestern Africa experienced relatively high crop water stress risk, while initial signs of drought emerged in China and Eastern Europe.

                                                          (a) September 30 to October 7

                                                                    (b) October 24 to October 31

                                                       (c) November 17 to November 24 

Figure 1.12 The global risk of crop water stress index in the cropland based on agricultural ecological zones (September - November 2025)

Precipitation monitoring by  CropWatch  shows that in November, a broad region centered around Southeast Asia experienced widespread heavy rainfall. Extensive areas in Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka recorded accumulated precipitation exceeding 300 mm. In South Africa, heavy rains and thunderstorms in the northeastern provinces triggered severe flooding, with consequent floods and landslides leading to casualties and population displacement

Figure 1.13 Precipitation anomaly in November 2025

                                                                    (a)

                                                                                     (b)

Figure 1.14 Changes in root zone soil moisture anomaly (October-November 2025) (a) and root zone soil moisture anomaly in November 2025 (b)

According to data from the EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), November 2025 was the third warmest November on record globally. The analysis based on US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) indicates that the global average monthly temperature for cropland in November 2025 ranked second among  all records in November since 2010. Although it was slightly lower than in November 2023, it remained at a historically high temperature (Figure 1.15). Land surface temperatures were above average for most of the global cropland, except in a few areas such as Western Europe, western India, Thailand, and eastern Argentina. The main land warming zones were located between 20° and 40° latitude north and south, particularly evident in the mid-western parts of Eurasia and the Americas. Remote sensing monitoring of the Cropland Temperature Condition Index (TCI) by CropWatch reflects a similar spatial pattern (Figure 1.16).

Figure 1.15 Average temperature in the global cropland from October to November (2010-2025)

                                    (a)  Air temperature anomaly based on NCEP reanalysis

                        (b) Spatial pattern of Temperature Condition Index (TCI)

Figure 1.16 Global air temperature anomaly based on NCEP reanalysis and the remote sensing temperature Condition Index (TCI) from VHP in November