In the context of generally warmer global temperatures in 2025, impacts from localized extreme cold events have caused greater complexity and uncertainty for crop growth. The average temperature in the global cropland in October 2025 was the lowest recorded for October in the past three years (Figure 1.15). During early and mid-October, temperatures in the mid-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were lower than average in the croplands.

Based on Temperature Condition Index, CropWatch team indicated that in early October, croplands in the Western Europe, Northeastern China, and Afghanistan faced a risk of low-temperature stress at a severity level of once every five years or more. Concurrently, the Loess Plateau in China and the Northwestern United States experienced a risk of low-temperature stress at a level of once every 2-5 years or more. By mid-October, the spatial extent affected by 2-5 year (or greater) low-temperature stress risk had  further expanded (Figure 1.17). These conditions adversely affected the growth, development, and yield of regional wheat crops.

                                                 (a)  1st dekad of Octomber

                                                         (b)  2nd dekad of Octomber

Figure 1.17 Low-temperature risk for wheat in the Northern Hemisphere in early to mid-October 2025