The monitoring period for this report is from November 2025 to January 2026. Utilizing multi-source satellite remote sensing data, ground-based observations, and meteorological data, and relying on the Global Crop Monitoring Cloud Platform (CropWatch Cloud), we assessed the global production situation of staple grain and oil crops, with a particular focus on the current production situation in the Southern Hemisphere. We analyzed the impact of extreme weather events that significantly affected agricultural production. Furthermore, for the 20 major producing countries among the top 20 global grain producers and the top 15 most populous nations, we conducted refined-scale remote sensing monitoring and verification of the planting area, yield, and total production of staple grain and oil crops. The main conclusions of the report are as follows:

From November 2025 to January 2026, the global Crop Production Index (CroPI-11) during the monitoring period was 1.07, remaining above the baseline overall. Spatially, the pattern showed a "divergent Southern Hemisphere and a stressed Equatorial region." Affected by insufficient precipitation, the CroPI-11 in the Southern Hemisphere decreased to 1.04 compared to the same period last year, marking the lowest level for this period in the past six years. The CroPI-11 for the Equatorial region was 1.06, with crop production condition in northern Southeast Asia remaining at the baseline, while conditions in the southern part of the region and East Africa were below average. The negative anomaly of soil moisture in most global farmlands further intensified, with the risk of water stress showing an increasing trend. The crop growing season in the Southern Hemisphere faced a "dual squeeze" from low reservoir levels and precipitation deficits. Specifically, if the drought conditions persist in north-central Brazil and southern Africa, it could affect the global supply capacity of soybeans and corn. Although the Northern Hemisphere is currently in an agricultural off-season, major producing regions such as the United States, China, and Europe are experiencing a complex impact from deep soil moisture deficits, abnormally high temperatures, and extreme heavy snowfall/cold waves, which cannot be ignored.

The total production of staple grain and oil crops in the Southern Hemisphere for 2026 is estimated at 405.6 million tons, an increase of 14.12 million tons year-on-year, representing a growth of approximately 3.5%. Among this, the Equatorial and adjacent rice-growing areas show a pattern of "stable north, concerning south, and differentiated east-west." Specifically, Southeast Asia exhibits a characteristic of "abundant north, deficient south." The total rice production in Vietnam and Indonesia is estimated at 12.23 million tons, a 0.1% increase year-on-year. In contrast, the African Equatorial region shows a pattern of "stable west, precarious east," with crops in the short rainy season in East Africa facing severe water stress. Major soybean-producing areas in South America show a clear trend of production increase, with a year-on-year increase of 10.23 million tons, a growth of 4.8%, which will help stabilize international soybean prices. The total production of major corn-producing areas in the Southern Hemisphere is estimated to reach 111.8 million tons, an increase of 1.43 million tons year-on-year, a growth of 1.3%. This increase is primarily attributed to improvements in both yield and planting area. Following verification, the total production of major wheat-producing areas in the Southern Hemisphere remains at 59.74 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%, consistent with the previous forecast.