Second-season maize in Nigeria is mainly distributed in the southern and central regions. It is usually sown during the second rainy season from August to September, as these areas have a bimodal rainfall pattern. Due to persistent cloud cover over central and southern Nigeria during the second-season maize growing period, image quality is poor. Therefore, only the representative Makurdi area with complete image coverage was selected for monitoring. Makurdi is located on the left bank of the Benue River and is the capital of Benue State. It has favorable natural conditions for second-season maize cultivation, which is mainly rainfed with supplementary irrigation. Unlike the main rainy-season production cycle, dry-season maize (from November to mid-February of the following year) relies mainly on soil moisture, shallow groundwater and irrigation along the Benue River.

According to CropWatch monitoring (Figure 2.12), the planted area of second-season maize in Makurdi in 2025 was about 4,000 hectares, a decrease of approximately 55% compared with the previous year. Planting was concentrated in areas with reliable irrigation, with limited expansion into marginal floodplains. The forecast yield is expected to drop by about 8% to 1,930 kg per hectare. This decline can be attributed to significant rainfall anomalies in central Nigeria in 2025, including a delayed rainy season and mid-season drought, which shortened the second-season maize planting window and caused water stress during the critical water requirement stages of the crop.

However, the NDVI time series from November 2025 to February 2026 shows a gradual decline from early November to February (a typical dry-season signal), with moderate vegetation vigor between December and January and no extreme vegetation inhibition.

In addition, long-term climate change studies indicate that maize in this region is highly vulnerable to drought, while other risks such as floods, pests and diseases further exacerbate yield reduction. CropWatch monitoring shows that vegetation is growing on cultivated land with moderate vigor and no widespread vegetation stress. Nevertheless, the vegetation NDVI is not particularly high, indicating moderate productivity rather than peak levels. The spatial distribution of VCIx shows that areas with good crop growth are interspersed with weaker patches, suggesting uneven irrigation, differences in soil water-holding capacity, and fragmented spatial distribution of farmland plots.

Therefore, the 2025–2026 dry-season maize production season can be qualitatively characterized as a moderately favorable year, with spatially restricted planting extent.

Figure 2.12 Secondary Maize Distribution Map of Makurdi