During November 2025–January 2026, Argentina experienced moisture-limited conditions, near-normal temperatures, and slightly above-average radiation. National precipitation was 21% below the 15-year average. Mean temperature remained close to normal, and photosynthetically active radiation was 2% higher. Reduced rainfall increased crops’ reliance on stored soil moisture and rainfall timing. Potential accumulated biomass declined by 8%, and water stress reached a 2-year return level (water stress index = 2.05). Remote sensing indicators show that vegetation remained relatively resilient (VCIx = 0.88; CroPI-11 = 1.10). However, the cropland area fraction (CALF) fell to 88% (–5%), reflecting delayed planting, uneven establishment, or longer bare soil and residue periods.

Dryness was more severe across the Pampas production belt. Precipitation was 27% below average in the Pampas, 21% below in the Pampas Mountains, and 32% below in the Semi-arid Pampas. Potential biomass declined by roughly 9%–11% in these areas. Risk levels were highest in the Pampas Mountains (VCIx = 0.79; CALF = 67%). In contrast, northeastern Mesopotamia maintained strong cropping signals despite a 20% rainfall deficit, with CALF at 99% (+1%) and CroPI-11 at 1.34, partially offsetting national risk.

For soybeans (Figure 2.1/2.2), severe drought during the same period in 2025 depressed yields, creating a low base for comparison. CropWatch shows that soybean area decreased from 18.690 million hectares to 16.653 million hectares (–10.9%). Yield rebounded from 2.269 t/ha to 2.769 t/ha (+22.0%). As a result, total production increased from 42.41 million tonnes to 46.10 million tonnes (+8.7%) despite reduced area. Production growth was driven mainly by yield recovery. However, continued moisture deficits mean that rainfall during upcoming critical stages will determine whether yield gains are fully realized, especially in the Pampas Mountains and Semi-arid Pampas.

For maize (Figure 2.1), lower export taxes and simplified export procedures improved profitability expectations. Farmers expanded maize area from 8.092 million hectares to 8.465 million hectares (+4.6%). Yield increased from 6.524 t/ha to 6.909 t/ha (+5.9%), raising production from 52.79 million tonnes to 58.48 million tonnes (+10.8%). Although early-season dryness constrained potential biomass, policy support and timely rainfall during key stages enabled gains in both area and yield.

Overall, Argentina strengthened soybean and maize supply this season. Soybean growth relied on yield recovery, while maize benefited from both area expansion and yield improvement. Continued monitoring of moisture stress in the Pampas Mountains and Semi-arid Pampas remains essential to assess potential risks to export performance and global markets.

Figure 2.1 Argentina major crop type map  during November 2025 to January 2026

Figure 2.2 Argentina soybean yield map during November 2025 to January 2026