From November 2025 to January 2026, Bangladesh entered the sowing and early growth stages of Boro-season rice. CropWatch remote sensing observations and agroclimatic indicators suggest that agroclimatic conditions during the monitoring period were generally stable and conducive to the establishment and early development of winter crops.

According to CropWatch monitoring results (Fig. 2.3), the national Boro rice planting area is estimated at 4,011 thousand hectares, primarily distributed across the northern, central alluvial plains and parts of eastern Bangladesh, including Rangpur, Rajshahi, Mymensingh, Dhaka, Khulna, and Sylhet divisions. This spatial pattern is highly consistent with the country's long-term typical Boro cultivation zones, reflecting the relatively reliable water supply in these regions during the dry season.

Figure 2.3 Distribution of Boro-season rice planting areas in Bangladesh

2. Agroclimatic and agronomic Indicators and Harvest Timing Outlook

At the national scale, CropWatch agroclimatic indicators indicate a distinctly water-limited environment during the monitoring period. The RAIN reached 28.12 mm, which is 36% below the 15-year average level .The TEMP was 20.1°C, close to the long-term average level, indicating normal thermal conditions. The  RADPAR totaled 641 MJ/m², about 3% above the long-term mean. Overall, thermal and radiation conditions remained stable and favorable for crop growth where irrigation water was available.

The CALF remained high at 94%, close to the 5-year average level. The  VCIx  was 0.97 , comparable to the long-term mean, indicating generally favorable crop vigor. The crop production index (CroPI-11 = 1.15) exceeded the 5-year average level, reflecting good overall growth conditions for Boro rice. Indicators related to agricultural drought, including the ADAC index and the PDSI Index, suggest that drought impacts remained largely controllable, with no widespread crop water stress detected.

During the monitoring period, NDVI did not exhibit significant negative anomalies, indicating that most regions had entered an appropriate early growth stage. In more than half of the country, NDVI values were at or above the 5-year average, while only limited areas showed slightly below-average conditions, with overall spatial differences remaining small. Crop condition indicators further reveal stable growth trends across all agro-ecological zones, with no large-scale degradation observed. In particular, NDVI levels remained relatively high in key Boro-producing regions such as the Ganges Plain and the Sylhet Basin.

Based on the combined analysis of meteorological conditions and NDVI temporal dynamics, Boro rice during the monitoring period is assessed to be between the post-sowing establishment stage and early regreening. With gradually rising temperatures and improving solar radiation in February, Boro crops are expected to enter a rapid growth phase in March, followed by grain filling and maturation from mid to late April, with harvesting likely to begin in May.