During this monitoring period, winter wheat in China was generally in the overwintering stage. Agrometeorological conditions were characterized by significant "warmer and drier" patterns: precipitation across the country was 33% below the long-term average, the mean temperature was 0.6°C above average, and the photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 4% above average. Water deficits in some regions may become the primary limiting factor for the subsequent green-up of winter wheat.

Affected by continuous rainfall during the 2025 summer harvest, winter wheat sowing was delayed in some major production areas of North China. Preliminary monitoring indicates (Figure 2.6) that the winter wheat planted area in the eight major producing provinces (Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei, Shaanxi, and Shanxi) for the 2025-2026 season is 19.778 million hectares, a decrease of about 0.9% compared to the 2024-2025 season. This suggests that the summer harvest delay last year had some impact on winter wheat planting. During the overwintering period, 75.9% of the winter wheat growing areas had crop conditions close to the average level. The Crop Production Condition Index was 1.01, indicating generally normal production conditions nationwide.

Figure 2.6 Winter wheat planted area in eight major producing provinces for 2025-2026 season

From a regional perspective, the Huang-Huai-Hai region received only 29.5 mm of precipitation, a sharp decrease of 45% compared to normal. This combination of "warmer and drier" conditions, coupled with a radiation surplus of 5%, accelerated soil moisture loss. The late sowing caused by autumn rainfall led to inherently weaker seedling stands in this region. Following emergence, the seedlings suffered from severe continuous winter drought, resulting in poor root development and insufficient tillering. This indicates that both the pre-winter population size and individual plant vigor of winter wheat in the Huang-Huai-Hai region are not optimistic. Without effective irrigation or subsequent precipitation supplementation, the green-up of winter wheat in spring will face significant pressure. In contrast, the Loess Plateau region, although also relatively dry, maintained a stable cropping intensity compared to normal years, with a Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) as high as 0.93, indicating favorable production conditions. In the Lower Yangtze River Basin, the winter cropped arable land fraction was above average, but the ongoing drought could negatively impact subsequent green-up, warranting attention to future precipitation.

Overall, the core challenge for the 2025-2026 winter wheat from the seedling stage to the overwintering stage is the dual impact of autumn rainfall and winter drought on late-sown fields. The Huang-Huai-Hai region, particularly central and southern Hebei, northern Henan, and northwestern Shandong, has been most severely affected by the drought. It is recommended that relevant wheat areas implement early fertilizer and water management after stable temperature rises in spring to promote the transition from weak to strong seedlings, compensating for the insufficient pre-winter tillering.