From November 2025 to January 2026, India's agricultural production focus shifted from the Kharif season to the Rabi season. In terms of crop phenology, Rabi-season rice remained in the sowing stage from November through January, while wheat completed its main sowing period between October and December and entered the early growth stage in January. CropWatch monitoring results indicate that agroclimatic conditions across India were generally dry during the monitoring period, but no pronounced heat stress was observed, and overall agricultural production conditions remained stable.

During the monitoring period, the RAIN reached 30 mm, about 6% below the 15-year average, but generally sufficient to meet early crop water requirements. The TEMP was 19.5°C, approximately 0.8°C below the long-term average. The RADPAR totaled 694 MJ/m², representing a 3% increase compared to the long-term mean. Affected by below-average RAIN, the BIOMASS was estimated at 254 gDM/m², about 20% lower than the 15-year average. In terms of crop condition indicators, the CALF reached 93%, approximately 3 percentage points above the 5-year average. The VCIx was 0.95 and the CroPI-11 was 1.15 , which indicate that overall crop growth conditions were within the normal to slightly favorable range. The ADAC index and PDSI index suggest that some regions experienced episodic water stress, but impacts remained generally manageable at the national scale.

(2) Production Conditions of Rabi-season Rice

According to CropWatch monitoring results (Figure 2.8), the national Rabi-season rice planting area in India for 2026 is estimated at 11,344.8 thousand hectares. The spatial distribution largely follows the long-term pattern, with major concentrations in the eastern coastal region, northeastern India, and southern irrigated areas.

From an agro-ecological zone perspective, the eastern coastal region and northeastern India experienced relatively favorable moisture conditions. In northeastern India, the RAIN increased by 21% compared to the 5-year average, with TEMP slightly higher by 0.2°C, and BIOMASS remaining close to the average, providing relatively favorable hydrothermal conditions for Rabi rice. In the eastern coastal region, although RAIN decreased by 35%, RADPAR levels were about 4% above the 5-year average and TEMP were slightly lower (–0.9°C), which helped alleviate evapotranspiration demand.

Overall, no significant intensification of agricultural drought was observed in major Rabi rice-producing areas during the monitoring period. VCIx remained within the range of 0.92–0.97, and CPI were generally above 1, indicating stable overall crop growth.

Figure 2.8 Distribution of Rabi-season rice planting areas in India

(3) Wheat Production Conditions

CropWatch monitoring results (Figure 2.9) indicate that the wheat planting area in India for 2026 is estimated at 33,438 thousand hectares, representing a 1.33% increase compared with 32,998 thousand hectares in 2025. The expansion was mainly observed in western arid regions and parts of central India, where cropland planting proportions remained high (89%–98%).

Average wheat yield is projected at 3,388 kg/ha, down 4.83% from 3,560 kg/ha in the previous year. As a result, total wheat production is tentatively estimated at 113.29 million tonnes, a 3.56% decrease compared with 117.47 million tonnes in 2025.

Agroclimatic analysis shows that the RAIN during the critical seedling and tillering stages was substantially below normal (45% lower than the 15-year average), exerting pressure on soil moisture in some regions. However, the TEMP was  slightly below the average, with no abnormal heat events observed, which helped slow crop development and mitigate thermal stress. Radiation conditions were relatively strong, favoring photosynthetic accumulation. The 20% decline in  BIOMASS suggests that water limitation has exerted a certain inhibitory effect on early wheat growth.

At the regional scale, the RAIN deficits were particularly pronounced in central India and the Ganges Plain (reductions of 77% and 47%, respectively), where BIOMASS declined markedly, making these areas the main contributors to the projected yield reduction. In contrast, northeastern India experienced above-average RAIN and relatively stable crop growth. In the western coastal region and parts of western arid zones, RAIN was below normal, but irrigation conditions were relatively favorable, and no significant aggravation of agricultural drought was observed.

Overall, based on current monitoring results, wheat production is characterized by a slight expansion in planted area accompanied by a potential risk of yield reduction. As the crop is still in its early growth stage, final production outcomes remain subject to considerable uncertainty and will depend on agroclimatic conditions during subsequent growth stages.

Figure 2.9 Distribution and yield levels of Rabi-season wheat in India

(4) Overall Assessment

From November 2025 to January 2026, agricultural production during India's Rabi season remained generally stable. Although national precipitation was noticeably below average, favorable radiation conditions partially offset the adverse effects of limited moisture availability on crop growth. Rabi-season rice maintained a stable planting pattern with generally normal growth conditions, while wheat acreage expanded slightly, but yield reductions contributed to a tentative decline in total production. Current CropWatch indicators suggest that overall crop production conditions remain within the normal range, with no evidence of widespread intensification of agricultural drought. If precipitation conditions improve during subsequent growth stages, there remains potential for partial recovery in yield levels.