Russian winter wheat (scheduled for harvest in the summer of 2026) was primarily sown between September and October 2025, with its early growth significantly influenced by autumn agrometeorological conditions. Reviewing the previous monitoring period (September–November 2025), major producing regions in Russia generally encountered severe autumn drought, with national cumulative precipitation 16% below average, though regional disparities were massive. The North Caucasus was the hardest hit, with a 35% drop in precipitation. This led to a substantial 14% year-on-year decrease in the fraction of cropped arable land (CALF) in that region compared to the five-year average, indicating that the severe drought either hindered timely sowing or resulted in emergence failure for some sown crops. In contrast, the South Caucasus received relatively sufficient autumn rainfall (+10%), leading to a significant 16% increase in CALF and providing a strong start for the sowing season. While CALF remained stable in the Middle Volga, Central Black Earth, and Central Russia, most crops entered the dormancy period in a weakened state due to insufficient subsoil moisture caused by a general autumn precipitation deficit of over 20%.

During the current monitoring period (November 2025 – January 2026), temperatures across Russia were generally mild (0.4°C above average), with no widespread extreme cold events recorded. This was highly beneficial for the weakened winter wheat, significantly reducing the risk of winterkill. However, moisture conditions will determine the growth potential following the spring green-up: the Urals and Western Volga (+17% precipitation) and Central Russia (+6% precipitation) received valuable moisture replenishment. The resulting snow cover not only provided a protective insulation layer for overwintering but also laid a foundation for the recovery of soil moisture in the spring. Conversely, winter precipitation was generally insufficient in the southern producing regions. The drought persisted in the North Caucasus (precipitation 18% below average), and the cumulative moisture deficit poses a severe drought risk for the upcoming spring. While the South Caucasus had a solid autumn sowing foundation, precipitation this period was also 18% below average; close attention must be paid to soil moisture levels following snowmelt to maintain crop growth potential (Table 2.1).

Table 2.1 Dashboard for Winter Wheat Monitoring and Risk Assessment in Major Producing Regions of Russia

Note: 🔴/🟠/🟡/🟢/🔵 represent moisture conditions ranging from severe deficit to surplus; 📉/📈 represent significant indicator changes; 🌡️/❄️ represent temperature characteristics.