CropWatch monitoring indicates that South Africa achieved a marked increase in maize production driven jointly by expanded planted area and higher yield (Figure 2.14). South Africa’s maize sector shows strong expansion momentum: planted area rose from 4.016 million ha to 4.136 million ha, an increase of 3.0%. This suggests that after the earlier El Niño–related drought, farmers regained confidence and completed timely planting, supported by favorable agro-meteorological conditions during the monitoring period—precipitation 11% above the 15-year average (294 mm) and mean temperature 0.8°C below normal. This cool and wet combination not only ensured adequate soil moisture and reduced the risk of planting delays, but also lowered evaporative demand due to cooler temperatures, creating an ideal soil-water environment for early crop growth.

On top of the area expansion, yield improved even more sharply. With irrigation accounting for only 9.3% in South Africa, maize yields in most fields are closely tied to agro-meteorological conditions. Abundant rainfall coupled with mild temperatures lifted yield from 5,295 kg/ha to 5,641 kg/ha, a 6.5% increase. The concurrent growth in both area and yield produced a pronounced multiplier effect, ultimately boosting total production from 21.27 million tonnes to 23.33 million tonnes, up 9.7%—an increase of 2.06 million tonnes—demonstrating the full release of favorable agro-climatic factors across both acreage and yield dimensions.

In contrast to maize, a decline in wheat yield offset a marginal increase in area. Wheat area edged up only from 0.660 million ha to 0.664 million ha (0.6%), essentially stagnating. This reflects that although agro-meteorological conditions during the monitoring period (December 2025–January 2026) were generally mild (ample rainfall and lower-than-normal temperatures), the period coincided with the wheat maturity and harvest stage, when additional moisture supply no longer makes a substantive contribution to yield formation.

Figure 2.14 Spatial distribution map of maize yield in South Africa during the monitoring period