Agro-meteorological conditions showed a “warm, dry, and low-sunlight” pattern, exerting a dual impact on winter wheat overwintering. During the monitoring period, precipitation totaled 124.58 mm, 12.09% below the 15-year average, but still sufficient to meet crop water requirements. Photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 6.91% below normal (129.37 MJ/m²), indicating increased cloudiness in early winter. The mean air temperature was 1.03°C (0.26°C above normal), which reduced the risk of extreme freeze damage; however, the warmer-than-normal environment enhanced intermittent evaporation and soil moisture loss. This combination is clearly reflected in the soil moisture anomaly map (Figure 2.16): apart from localized areas in the north and south showing a positive anomaly of about 1% (green), the central and eastern main producing regions generally exhibited negative anomalies of −1% to −4% (orange to dark red). In particular, soil moisture in areas east of the Dnipro River and in the southeastern chernozem (black soil) zone was markedly below average, posing potential moisture stress to winter wheat root survival through winter and to early spring green-up.

Ukraine’s 2025/26 winter crop production presents a complex picture characterized by the coexistence of “substantial expansion in sown area” and “cautious crop conditions during overwintering” (Figure 2.15). Winter-sown area surged from 7.792 million ha in 2025 to 11.181 million ha in 2026, an increase of 43.5%, indicating strong farmer willingness to expand planting during the autumn sowing window and also suggesting a weakening impact from the Russia–Ukraine conflict.

Crop condition dynamics exhibited a turning-point pattern of “stable early, then a sharp downturn.” The NDVI time series shows that during the emergence stage in November 2025, the vegetation index anomaly was close to zero, implying that autumn emergence and canopy establishment were broadly in line with normal expectations. In December, most areas showed slight positive anomalies, benefiting from warmer conditions that delayed full dormancy and maintained some green leaf area. However, January 2026 became a critical turning point: NDVI anomalies in the central and northern wheat belt plunged by 0.12–0.13. Although there was some rebound within the month, such a “cliff-like” drop typically indicates canopy signal loss due to winter snow cover and the influence of stress events (a warm spell followed by a cold surge, freeze–thaw damage, ice crust formation, or short-term waterlogging). The Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) of 0.705 suggests that vegetation conditions reached near-historically favorable levels at times during the monitoring period, but the Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI-11) of 0.844—below the 1.0 benchmark—confirms that the overall production outlook remains uncertain and warrants continued observation.

Pronounced regional differentiation is evident. The southern producing areas were relatively stable, serving as a “buffer zone” for winter crops, thanks to milder overwintering conditions and localized positive soil-moisture anomalies. In contrast, the central and northern wheat belt faced accumulating overwintering risks; the January NDVI plunge combined with negative soil-moisture anomalies suggests that parts of these areas may have experienced winter freeze injury or desiccation (wind-drying) stress.

Figure 2.15. Distribution map of winter crop planting in Ukraine in 2024 (left) and 2025 (right).

Figure 2.16. Soil moisture anomaly in December 2025 relative to the past five-year average.