This monitoring period (November 2025–January 2026) corresponds to the non-growing season for major field crops in the United States. After the completion of maize and soybean harvests in November 2025, winter wheat became the only dominant crop, entering its “overwintering” stage from November through January.

During the monitoring period, national agroclimatic conditions were characterized by pronounced moisture stress. CropWatch agro-climatic indicators show that precipitation (RAIN) was 112 mm, which was 25% below the 15-year average (15YA). The mean temperature (TEMP) was 1.0°C, 0.2°C above 15YA, indicating slightly warmer-than-normal conditions. Photosynthetically active radiation (RADPAR) reached 337 MJ/m², 4% above 15YA. National potential accumulated biomass (BIOMSS) was 311 g DM/m², 8% below 15YA, reflecting the suppressive effect of water deficit.

Meanwhile, the crop arable land fraction (CALF) was 41%, 11% below the 5-year average. This lower value may be associated with the early growth stage of winter wheat, when vegetation signals remain relatively weak, compounded by cloud cover and snow cover, which may have led to underestimation in remote sensing observations. Notably, the maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) reached 0.89, and the Crop Production Index (CroPI-11) was 1.08, approximately 8% above the benchmark, indicating a relatively favorable production outlook.

The national cropland NDVI profile exhibited typical seasonal transition characteristics. Following the completion of maize and soybean harvests in November 2025, NDVI declined rapidly. In winter wheat areas, NDVI stabilized or slightly decreased during December–January due to dormancy. Regionally, precipitation in the southern Great Plains, the main winter wheat-producing area, was about 20% below 15YA, implying a potential risk of drought stress during post-dormancy green-up. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest recorded 14% above 15YA precipitation, providing relatively favorable winter moisture conditions. In California, characterized by a Mediterranean climate, precipitation was 6% above normal, and overall crop growth conditions were favorable.

If dry trend persist from February to April 2026, winter wheat and other summer grain crops in the southern Great Plains may face an elevated risk of moisture stress. Close attention should therefore be paid to the intensity and spatial continuity of winter wheat green-up in this region, as well as to the evolution of soil moisture conditions during the spring planting season.