This monitoring period (November 2025 – January 2026) covers the sowing and early growth stages of dry-season rice in Thailand. The latest remote sensing monitoring data indicate that affected by a combination of factors including extreme anomalous climate and planting intention, the rice cropping area in Thailand has decreased significantly this year, by approximately 7.7% compared with the same period in 2025 (Figure 2.18).

In terms of the comprehensive performance of national agro-meteorological and crop conditions, Thailand experienced an unusually hot, humid and rainy climate during this period. The national cumulative precipitation reached 124 mm, a sharp increase of 81% relative to the 15-year average for the same period, while the average temperature was 1.1°C lower. Although the abundant anomalous precipitation led to a 14% higher theoretical potential cumulative biomass, excessive moisture in practice has clearly exerted negative impacts on farming operations and actual crop growth. The national VCIx was only 0.79 and the CrPI was 0.91, both below the normal favorable levels. In addition, the national cropping intensity slightly dropped to 98%, which preliminarily confirms the hindrance to sowing and the reduction in cropping area caused by field waterlogging.

Within the major production areas, the impacts of extreme precipitation varied significantly across agro-ecological zones. The single-cropping rice areas (mainly concentrated in the Northeast) suffered the most severe rainfall anomalies, with cumulative precipitation surging by 115%, directly resulting in the lowest VCIx (0.72) and CroPI-11 (0.85) nationwide, indicating that persistent field waterlogging or local flooding severely hampered early crop growth. The double-/triple-cropping rice areas (mainly in the Central Plains), the main producers of dry-season rice, also faced a 93% higher precipitation anomaly. More critically, the cropping intensity in this region decreased sharply by 4% compared with the historical average. A large number of farmlands were forced to lie idle or delay sowing due to inadequate drainage, which accounted for the overall 7.7% reduction in the national rice cropping area. In contrast, horticultural areas and mountainous regions were less affected by negative water stress due to differences in topography and crop types, with CrPI generally maintained at or above 1.0.

Overall, although abundant precipitation provided sufficient water resources, the excessive early rainfall severely disrupted the sowing schedule of dry-season rice and led to a sharp contraction in sown area. The current overall crop growth is facing considerable challenges. Close attention should be paid in the later stage to drainage and waterlogging removal in low-lying areas and the restorative growth of crops.

Fig 2.18 Rice Distribution in Thailand, 2026

Fig 2.19 In-Situ Rice Field Photos of Thailand in January