1.1.1 Global Production Situation

The first monitoring period of 2026 (November 2025 – January 2026) coincides with the peak growing season for Southern Hemisphere crops and the fallow/overwintering period for the Northern Hemisphere. The Global Crop Production Index (CroPI-11) stood at 1.07, remaining above the baseline; however, the upward momentum has slowed significantly (Figure 1.1), revealing a spatial pattern characterized by "differentiation in the Southern Hemisphere and pressure in equatorial regions."

Figure 1.1 Time series trends of Global and Regional CroPI-11, Nov (previous year) – Jan (current year), 2021–2026

Major Producing Regions in the Southern Hemisphere: Persistent Drought and Marginally Weakening Production
The Southern Hemisphere CroPI-11 fell to 1.04, a six-year low for this period, marking a phased correction following the restorative growth seen in 2024–2025. Spatial distribution (Figure 1.2) shows that in the soybean and maize belts of north-central Brazil, CroPI-11 values were primarily in the normal range of 0.95–1.05, with some marginal areas dropping to 0.85–0.95, indicating a decline in production conditions compared to previous stages. This is directly linked to below-average precipitation (–30% to –10%) during the monitoring period, which prevented effective replenishment of subsoil moisture and constrained soybean flowering/pod-setting as well as first-season maize jointing/booting.

The Argentine Pampas exhibited a "favorable North, poor South" pattern: northern areas maintained positive CroPI-11 levels of 1.05–1.25 (with central parts reaching 1.25–1.50), while only the south showed deficit signals (0.75–0.95). Overall production conditions there remain generally favorable.

Southern Africa showed highly fragmented characteristics. The eastern grain belt of South Africa maintained favorable CroPI-11 levels (1.15–1.25), but parts of Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Madagascar recorded low values (0.50–1.00). Despite significantly higher precipitation in these areas (+10% to +30%, locally ≥30%), risks such as uneven emergence and weak growth of summer crops (e.g., maize) are accumulating due to cooler-than-normal weather (–1.5 to –0.5°C) and low Photosynthetically Active Radiation (RADPAR, –10% to –5%).

The southeastern Australian grain belt maintained favorable CroPI-11 levels (1.15–1.50). Although this is lower than the extreme highs of the previous period, it remains in a normal-to-positive range, providing generally good starting conditions for summer crops.

Equatorial and Adjacent Regions: Spatial Polarization, Risk, and Resilience
Southeast Asian rice regions showed North-South divergence. Northern Indochina maintained CroPI-11 levels of 1.00–1.15, while significant deficits occurred in the south (generally below 0.85). The core equatorial zone (parts of Indonesia) showed patchy characteristics, where uneven rainfall may hinder the transplanting progress of dry-season rice.

Conditions for short-season crops in East Africa are concerning. In major producing areas of Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, CroPI-11 values were generally below 0.85, consistent with precipitation deficits exceeding 30% and significant declines in potential biomass (BIOMSS). This indicates bleak harvest prospects for short-season crops and deteriorating pasture conditions, increasing food security pressure.

Northern Hemisphere: Implicit Risks during Overwintering

Most of the Northern Hemisphere is currently in the overwintering or pre-sowing stage; subsequent risks must be assessed in conjunction with agrometeorological conditions (see Section 1.1.2).

Figure 1.2 Global Spatial Distribution of CroPI-11, Nov 2025 – Jan 2026

1.1.2 Global Agrometeorological Conditions and Outlook

During the monitoring period, the global agrometeorological pattern was characterized by "wet-dry differentiation in the Southern Hemisphere and prominent drought in the Northern Hemisphere." Significant spatial polarization of precipitation anomalies has become the dominant factor constraining subsequent crop growth (Figure 1.3).

South America: Deficits in North-Central Regions, Normal in the South

North-central producing regions of Brazil (Mato Grosso, Goiás, Bahia) experienced precipitation deficits (–30% to –10%), with localized areas suffering severe shortage (<–30%). Subsoil moisture continues to be depleted. If below-average rainfall persists, it may impact soybean pod-setting and maize booting. Conversely, southern Brazil and Uruguay saw largely normal precipitation (–10% to +10%), with some areas receiving surplus rainfall, improving conditions over the previous period. Most of the Argentine Pampas had normal rainfall, though localized western and northern parts were drier. If compensatory rains remain insufficient through February and March, major South American soybean regions may face moisture stress during the critical yield-formation phase.

Southern Africa: Abundant in the East, Deficit in the West

Precipitation in Southern Africa followed an "abundant East, deficit West" pattern. Zimbabwe, Zambia, Mozambique, and Madagascar saw significant rainfall (+10% to +30%, locally ≥30%), leading to sufficient subsoil moisture and increased BIOMSS (≥10%). However, cooler temperatures and low radiation may adversely affect summer crop emergence. Eastern South Africa (KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga) enjoyed favorable conditions due to plentiful rain, while southern South Africa (Western and Eastern Cape) faced severe deficits (<–30%), creating localized drought hotspots.

Eastern Australia: Surplus in the North, Deficit in the South

Coastal eastern Australia (Queensland, New South Wales) recorded significantly above-average precipitation (≥30%), posing waterlogging risks that could interfere with summer crop harvesting. In contrast, the southeast (Victoria, South Australia) and Tasmania faced severe deficits (<–30%), with BIOMSS slightly declining. Persistent drought in these areas could impact summer crop yield formation. Western Australia remained stable with near-average conditions.

Equatorial Regions: Significant Spatial Mismatch of Hydrothermal Conditions

The spatial mismatch of hydrothermal conditions in equatorial agricultural areas may have differentiated impacts on crop growth. In northern Indochina (northern Thailand, Laos, Cambodia), precipitation was significantly higher (≥30%) and BIOMSS increased (≥10%), but slightly lower temperatures (–1.5 to –0.5°C) might affect dry-season rice transplanting and tillering if they persist. The Malay Peninsula, Sumatra, and Kalimantan experienced rainfall deficits (–30% to –10%) and declining BIOMSS, which could impact economic crops like oil palm and rubber. Java (Indonesia) remained stable. In the Philippines, uneven rainfall (dry in the North, wet in the South) may hinder rice transplanting schedules.

In equatorial West Africa (Gulf of Guinea), significant rainfall surplus was accompanied by abnormally warm temperatures (≥1.5°C), increasing the risk of pests and diseases. Central Africa (Congo Basin) and East Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, Somalia) both faced severe precipitation deficits (<–30%) and significant BIOMSS declines. The persistent drought in East Africa represents an acute moisture stress for short-season crops, rising food security risks.

Northern Hemisphere: Low Temperatures and Subsoil Moisture Deficits
While not yet in the peak growing season, the drastic shifts in agrometeorological conditions pose potential risks for the next period (January–March 2026).

• North America: The east-central United States faced a combination of abnormal cold (<–1.5°C) and severe precipitation deficit (<–30%), leading to a significant BIOMSS decline. While the cold may help suppress overwintering pests, the lack of subsoil moisture in the winter wheat areas of the Southern Plains could lead to severe spring drought if effective replenishment does not occur during the green-up phase.

• Europe: Eastern Europe and the Black Sea region (Ukraine, SW Russia) saw significant BIOMSS increases (≥10%) and generally favorable conditions, providing a good foundation for winter crop recovery. Mediterranean coastal areas (Spain, Italy, Turkey) had lower radiation, slightly inhibiting photosynthetic conditions for autumn-sown crops. Western Europe (France, Germany) remained stable with normal temperatures and precipitation.

• China: Eastern regions switched from "wet to dry." The North China Plain, Middle-Lower Yangtze, and South China saw precipitation turn from surplus to severe deficit (<–30%), with BIOMSS sliding (<–10%). During the overwintering-to-green-up transition, previously vigorous crops may struggle with later drought due to shallow root systems. Furthermore, high RADPAR (≥10%) in East China is favorable for the photosynthesis of winter wheat and rapeseed. The Northeast has adequate moisture but must guard against freeze-thaw damage caused by rapid spring warming.

• South Asia: Central and southern India faced severe precipitation deficits (<–30%) and declining BIOMSS, potentially leading to insufficient water supply for dry-season crops. The northern Indo-Gangetic Plain experienced increasing regional differentiation and cooler-than-normal temperatures.

Figure 1.3 Departure anomalies (15YA) of global agrometeorological indicators (Precipitation, Temperature, RADPAR, BIOMSS), Nov 2025 – Jan 2026

1.1.3 Evaluation of Global Extreme Weather Event Impacts

(1) Slight drought in the global cropland

According to root-zone soil moisture monitoring (Figure 1.4), from December 2025 to January 2026, the negative soil moisture anomaly in most of the world’s croplands further intensified, including regions in the Northern Hemisphere such as China, the United States, India, and Northwestern Europe, as well as in the Southern Hemisphere including Argentina, Brazil, Southern Africa, and Australia. In January, severe soil moisture deficits occurred in parts of Eastern Europe, the United States, and in regions of Argentina, Brazil, and southeastern Australia.

CropWatch monitoring indicates (Figures 1.5/1.6) that since November 2025, global cropland water stress risk has shown an increasing trend, remaining particularly high during the year-end and New Year period. The area affected by droughts with a return period of ≥5 years increased from 24.0% in late November to 22.96% in mid-December, then rose again to 25.74% in late January, displaying an initial decline followed by an upward trend. By late January 2026, drought conditions expanded across inland areas of Asia, including Central Asia, West Asia, and parts of Central and Eastern Europe. In West Asia, Turkey, southern Russia, and certain areas in the eastern United States, crop water stress risk remained notably elevated.

(a) Changes in root zone soil moisture anomaly from December, 2025 to January, 2026

(b) Root zone soil moisture anomaly in January 2026

Figure 1.4 Global cropland root-zone soil moisture anomaly (relative to the 2016-2025 multi-year average)

Figure 1.5 Changes in global cropland average crop water stress risk from July 2025 to January 2026

(a) November 25 - December 2, 2025

(b) November 25 - December 2, 2025

(c) January 25 to Feburay 1, 2026

Figure 1.6 The global risk of crop water stress index in the cropland based on agricultural ecological zones (November - January 2026)

(2)  Higher than Average Temperatures in cropland January 2026

Based on monitoring of the Crop Temperature Condition Index (TCI) (Figure 1.7), cropland areas with TCI values not exceeding 40 (indicating high-temperature stress) accounted for 42.91% of the total cropland area in January 2026. In regions such as the Huang-Huai-Hai area of China, the north-central United States, northern Kazakhstan, northwestern Europe, Argentina, and southern Australia, cropland land surface temperatures were higher than usual, warranting close attention to the trend of soil moisture deficits in these areas.

Figure 1.7 Spatial distribution of the global cropland average Temperature Condition Index (TCI) in January 2026

(3) Severe snowfall in the Northern Hemisphere in January 2026

In January 2026, multiple countries in North America and Europe experienced a series of severe snowstorms (Figure 1.8). According to the snow cover anomaly for January, unusually intense snow cover was observed in regions including the central United States, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Northern Europe, Central and Eastern Europe, southern Turkey, eastern Henan, and northern Anhui in China.

Figure 1.8 MODIS snow cover anomaly in January 2026 (relative to the 2010-2025 multi-year average)

（4）Reservoir water levels remain low

According to the reservoir water level data from DAHITI satellite altimetry products(Figure 1.9), the water level of the Venustiano Carranza Reservoir in the Grande River Basin of Mexico has been low since January 2025; the Tsimlyansk Reservoir on the Don River in Russia has shown a negative anomaly compared to the same period since 2020 starting in July, and has remained at low levels from November to January; the Assad Reservoir in the Tigris-Euphrates River Basin in Syria has been at low levels since November of last year; the Zhelin Reservoir in the Yangtze River Basin of China has been at low levels since May 2025; the Salto Santiago Reservoir in the Paraná River Basin of Brazil has been at low levels since January 2025; and the Dartmouth Reservoir in the Murray River Basin in Australia has been consistently at low levels since the beginning of 2024. Regions with reservoirs experiencing low water levels need to proactively implement disaster prevention plans for drought and scientifically manage water resource allocation to minimize the potential adverse impacts of water scarcity on agricultural production.

Figure 1.9 Remote sensing monitoring of water level anomalies in typical global reservoirs in January 2026 (relative to the 2020-2025 multi-year average)

（5）Comprehensive Outlook

Integrating the monitoring of global production trends, agrometeorological conditions, and extreme events, the time-lagged risks and cumulative pressures facing global food production have become increasingly prominent.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the peak growing season is encountering a "double stress" of low reservoir levels and precipitation deficits. In particular, if conditions in north-central Brazil do not see effective mitigation in February, it will directly impact the global supply capacity of soybeans and maize for the first half of the year.

In the Northern Hemisphere, although currently in the fallow period, "implicit" hazards cannot be ignored. Major producing regions such as the United States, China, and Europe are facing the composite impacts of deep-layer soil moisture deficits, abnormal temperatures, and extreme heavy snowfall or cold waves. Such extreme climatic fluctuations not only weaken the resilience of overwintering crops but also plant the seeds for severe spring drought and frost risks during the spring green-up phase.

Over the coming months, focus should be placed on the improvement of precipitation during critical growth stages in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as the matching of hydrothermal resources in major Northern Hemisphere "breadbaskets" during the spring. Vigilance is required against yield fluctuations triggered by extreme climatic events.