From November 2025 to January 2026, rice production across the equatorial regions exhibited a pattern of "stability in the North, concern in the South, and East-West differentiation" (Figure 1.10). The Rabi season rice areas in South Asia were generally normal to favorable, though with significant internal variation; Southeast Asia was characterized by "abundance in the North and deficits in the South"; while the equatorial region of Africa showed "stability in the West and crisis in the East," with short-season crops in East Africa facing severe moisture stress.

Figure 1.10 Spatial Distribution of the Crop Production Index (CroPI-11) in Equatorial and Adjacent Rice-Growing Regions, November 2025 – January 2026

South Asian Rice Regions: Stable Start for the Rabi Season with Marked Internal Differentiation
CroPI-11 values in the middle and lower reaches of the Indo-Gangetic Plain generally fell within the below-average range of 0.75–0.95, a continuation of the previous period's drought stress. Precipitation during the monitoring period was over 30% below the long-term average (15YA), leading to a significant decline in potential biomass (BIOMSS <−10%). While Rabi rice in this region was sown in November, the persistent drought, though challenging, remained conducive to rice growth in well-irrigated paddy fields.

Conditions in northeastern India and the Ganges Delta in Bangladesh were normal to favorable, with CroPI-11 maintained between 1.00 and 1.25. Precipitation in northeastern India increased by 21% compared to the 15YA. In Bangladesh, the fraction of cropped arable land reached 94%, with a VCIx of approximately 0.97 and a CroPI-11 of 1.15. The Boro rice crop in Bangladesh (4,011 thousand hectares) is currently in the regrowth stage and expected to be harvested in May; favorable current soil moisture has laid a solid foundation for a bumper harvest. In the irrigated rice areas of northwestern India, CroPI-11 exceeded 1.50, indicating that production potential is at a historical high.

Southeast Asian Rice Regions: North-South Divergence and Differentiated Conditions for Dry-Season Rice
In the southern part of the Indochina Peninsula (Central Thailand and the area surrounding Tonle Sap Lake in Cambodia), CroPI-11 was below 0.85, following the severe drought of the previous period (where Thailand’s precipitation deficit reached 61.1%). As the monitoring period coincided with the sowing and early growth stages of dry-season rice, persistent drought has intensified irrigation pressure.

In contrast, the northern Indochina Peninsula recorded CroPI-11 values between 1.00 and 1.25, with precipitation 10–30% above average and potential biomass increases of ≥10%. Conditions for dry-season rice growth were favorable, though slightly lower temperatures (−1.5 to −0.5°C) require attention regarding their impact on tillering. Along the Malay Peninsula and Sumatra, precipitation was below normal (−30% to −10%), and CroPI-11 showed a patchy distribution (0.85–1.05), suppressing economic crops such as oil palm and rubber. In Java, Indonesia, the situation remained stable, with total rice production reaching 7.44 million tons (+5.92%) and yields increasing by 7.50%.

Equatorial Africa: Sharp Contrast between East and West, Serious Concerns for East Africa

In the equatorial region of West Africa (along the Gulf of Guinea), CroPI-11 ranged from 1.00 to 1.25. While precipitation was above average, temperatures were warmer by ≥1.5°C, necessitating vigilance against pests and diseases. This period is currently an off-season for farming, and good soil moisture creates a positive outlook for the sowing of the 2026 main rainy season. In equatorial East Africa (Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia), CroPI-11 was below 0.85 due to severe precipitation deficits (<−30%). The harvest outlook for short-season crops is bleak, leading to rising food security pressures.

Outlook
Future monitoring for equatorial rice-growing regions should focus on: irrigation and precipitation replenishment in the middle and lower Indo-Gangetic Plain, which will determine Rabi rice yields; the impact of drought on dry-season rice growth in the southern Indochina Peninsula; and the progress of the rainy season in equatorial East Africa for overall food production. Stability in equatorial rice production remains highly dependent on the improvement of hydrothermal conditions in these key regions. Rice production monitoring results for major countries in this region are shown in Table 1.1.

Table 1.1 Rice Production Forecast for Selected Countries in Equatorial Regions (October 2025 – January 2026)