South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, has in recent years continued to consolidate its position as a core global region for soybean production and export. As the world's primary soybean producing and exporting area, its output fluctuations not only profoundly impact the supply-demand dynamics of the global soybean market but also directly relate to the food security and trade stability of major importing countries such as China.

According to the latest monitoring data (Figure 1.11), soybean production in South America showed an overall growth trend in the 2025-2026 season. The total production of the two major soybean-producing countries, Brazil and Argentina, is expected to reach 221.9 million tons, a 4.8% increase compared to the previous year. The combined soybean planting area in the two countries totals 65,864 thousand hectares, a year-on-year increase of 3,963 thousand hectares, or 6.4%. Among them, Brazil's planting area saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 13.9%, while Argentina's decreased by 10.9% year-on-year. Regarding agro-meteorological conditions, precipitation in both Argentina and Brazil was below the 15-year average, yet crop growth conditions differed significantly. Argentina, having experienced severe drought during the same period last year, started from a low yield base; its yield  is expected to recover significantly by 22.0% year-on-year, reaching 2,769 kg/ha. In contrast, Brazilian soybeans were affected by insufficient precipitation during the early critical growth period, with an expected yield of 3,570 kg/ha, down 8.8% year-on-year. Due to these structural differences, the average soybean yield in South America is projected to be 3,368 kg/ha, a 1.5% decrease year-on-year. Subsequent monitoring needs to continuously track the impact of changes in precipitation and soil moisture on soybean yields.

The increase in soybean production in South America helps alleviate global supply pressures, providing a stable source for major importing countries like China and playing a positive role in stabilizing market prices. However, production expansion also faces challenges such as climate change and land degradation. Therefore, while expanding production capacity, South American countries should strengthen agricultural technology innovation and ecological protection to promote sustainable development.

Figure 1.11 Spatial Districution of Soybean in South America, 2026

Tabel 1.2 Soybean Production Forecast for South American Countries (October 2025 – January 2026)