During this monitoring period, the focus is on maize production in four Southern Hemisphere countries: Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, and Mexico. Argentina is a key maize-producing country with a large planted area, primarily concentrated in the Pampas region. Brazil, another major maize-growing countries in the Southern Hemisphere, grows maize mainly in the central and southern regions; the current monitoring covers only Brazil’s first-season maize. In South Africa, maize cultivation is concentrated primarily in the eastern and central regions. Mexico also has a sizeable maize area, mainly distributed in the northwest and the south, and the current monitoring period corresponds to Mexico’s second-season maize.

Overall, total maize production in the Southern Hemisphere increased by 1.3% during this monitoring period, reaching 111.8 million tons. The increase was primarily driven by gains in both planted area and yield. Specifically, the planted area expanded slightly by 0.8% to 17.19 million hectares, while the average yield increased marginally by 0.5% to 6,504 kg/ha. However, significant variations in production trends among the major Southern Hemisphere countries were observed, reflecting diverse climatic conditions throughout the growing season and illustrating the interplay between variable weather patterns and agricultural resilience.

Argentina demonstrated the strongest performance, with production surging by 10.8% to 58.48 million tons. This increase resulted from both planted area expansion (+4.6% to 8,465 thousand hectares) and a significant increase in yield (+5.9% to 6,909 kg/ha). Notably, these gains were achieved despite a precipitation deficit, with cumulative precipitation was 21% below average, potential biomass declined by 8%, temperature was slightly lower (-0.1°C), and photosynthetically active radiation increased (+2%), while favorable soil moisture conditions early in the season helped underpin the production increase.

In contrast, in Brazil, precipitation during this monitoring period was 11% below average, and potential biomass decreased by 3% to 1,209.8 g DM/m². Slightly lower temperature (-0.1°C) and increased photosynthetically active radiation (+3%) intensified severe water stress, significantly constraining the growth of Brazil’s first-season maize. CropWatch monitoring indicates that insufficient rainfall during critical growth stages and limited biomass accumulation led to the sharpest production decline, and first-season maize production fell by 13.4% to 27.74 million tons, with decreases in both planted area (-0.2%) and yield (-13.2%).

In South Africa, maize production increased by 9.7% to 23.33 million tons, driven by a 3.0% increase in yield to 5,641 kg/ha coupled with a 3.0% increase in planted area. This improvement was mainly associated with a shift from the precipitation deficits observed in the previous monitoring period to increased rainfall during this monitoring period, as precipitation was 11% above average and potential biomass increased by 3%, providing favorable conditions that effectively supported maize growth and development.

Mexico's second-season maize production decreased by 47.5% to 2.25 million tons. This decline was primarily due to an 18% reduction in rainfall, which leading to a significant reduction in planted area, especially in the southern mainly rainfed regions dominated by smallholder farms due to limited irrigation. National second-season maize planted area declined by 48.1% to 384 thousand hectares. By contrast, impacts were relatively limited in the large-scale maize-producing areas of northwestern Mexico,  which benefited from more reliable irrigation water supply.

Table 1.3 Maize Production Forecast for Southern Hemisphere Countries (October 2025 – January 2026)