According to NOAA's forecast on February 1, 2026, the likelihood of transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next 1–2 months has significantly increased (now up to 75%), while residual La Niña influences may still persist into early spring.

Combined with short-term weather forecasts for late February 2026 and long-term outlooks for March–April 2026, the coming months are projected to bring a climate pattern of “dry first, then wet, and overall cooler” across global rainfed agricultural regions (Figures 1.12/1.13). The Palmer Drought Severity Index indicates a mild intensification of drought conditions in global rainfed farmland. Compared to the period from November 2025 to January 2026, drought risks in agriculture are expected to further develop in countries such as China, the United States, Argentina, South Africa, and Kazakhstan.

In the near future, close attention should be paid to:

• Precipitation variability in water-limited zones, especially in key northern hemisphere farming areas entering the critical spring planting period, such as southern China and the United States;

• Global water allocation conditions, particularly reservoir storage and irrigation capacity in major irrigated regions;

• The risk of late‑spring cold spells triggered by La Niña–related temperature fluctuations, as well as differential impacts of global precipitation and temperature anomalies on major agricultural zones.

Figure 1.12 Monthly PDSI for global rainfed agricultural regions from March 2024 to February 2026

Figure 1.13 PDSI difference between February-April 2026 and November 2025-January 2026