CropWatch predicts that the total global production of major cereal crops and soybean in 2026 will reach 3.34106 billion tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.74 million tons or approximately 0.8% (Appendix A.1.1). Specifically, global maize production is predicted at 1.21228 billion tons, with an increase of 15.99 million tons (+1.3%); rice production is predicted at 864.08 million tons, with an increase of 5.85 million tons (+0.7%); wheat production is at 819.16 million tons, with a decrease of 3.50 million tons (-0.4%); and soybean production is predicted at 445.54 million tons, with an increase of 9.40 million tons (+2.2%).

The 20 major producing countries highlighted in Chapter 3 of this report are the core contributors to global grain production, accounting for 89% of global maize, 76% of rice, 93% of wheat, and 91% of soybean output (Figure 1.1). These major producing countries represent the priority focus for global food security monitoring and early warning. For maize, remote sensing monitoring data from major producing countries totals 187.48 million tons (+2.6% year-on-year), primarily from South American and African countries such as Brazil and South Africa, while most other major producing countries rely on predicted output, totaling 889.62 million tons (estimated +0.6% year-on-year). Other countries contributed 38.42 million tons from remote sensing monitoring (-1.1% year-on-year) and 96.75 million tons from prediction (+6.6% year-on-year), indicating significant production expansion in non-major producing countries. For rice, monitored output from major producing countries reached 125.26 million tons (+4.2% year-on-year), primarily from Southeast and South Asian countries such as Indonesia and Bangladesh, with predicted output at 533.49 million tons (+0.2% year-on-year). For wheat, monitored output from major producing countries totaled 431.56 million tons (+0.4% year-on-year), with favorable production conditions in Northern Hemisphere countries such as France, Germany, and China; other countries showed substantial variation, with monitored wheat output at 12.95 million tons (+35.4% year-on-year), driven mainly by Middle Eastern and North African countries such as Morocco and Syria, while predicted output for other countries was 45.43 million tons (-22.6% year-on-year). Soybean monitoring is highly concentrated in major producing countries, with monitored output at 222.37 million tons (+0.2% year-on-year), primarily from South American countries such as Brazil and Argentina, and predicted output at 184.46 million tons (-5.8% year-on-year); other countries are entirely based on predicted output, predicted at 38.71 million tons (+1.1% year-on-year).

Table 1.1 Global Production of Major Creals and Soybean: Remote Sensing Monitoring and Prediction

(1) Global Maize Production Increases by 1.3%

Global maize production in 2026 is predicted at 1.212 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The increase is mainly attributed to production growth in Brazil, South Africa, and other countries. Brazil's maize production surged to 109.40 million tons, up 8.4% year-on-year, serving as a key contributor to global maize production growth. South Africa's maize production continued to recover to 11.99 million tons, up 2.1%; Angola's maize production rose to 3.49 million tons, up 6.6%; Ethiopia's maize production grew to 5.51 million tons, up 3.3%; Mozambique's maize production increased to 2.38 million tons, up 2.9%; Nigeria's maize production rose to 7.84 million tons, up 1.4%.

However, several major producing countries experienced significant output declines. Argentina's maize production fell to 47.04 million tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 10.9%; Indonesia's maize production dropped to 17.28 million tons, down 4.7%; Vietnam's maize production plunged 7.4% to 3.74 million tons; Zambia's maize production fell to 3.49 million tons, down 5.9%; the Philippines' maize production decreased to 7.07 million tons, down 0.6%; and Egypt's maize production dropped to 6.13 million tons, down 2.2%.

(2) Rice Production Remains Generally Stable

Global rice production in 2026 increased by 0.7% year-on-year, a continued slowdown from 2025. Among major producing countries, Nigeria's rice production grew to 4.32 million tons, up 3.5%; Cambodia's dry season rice production rose to 10.62 million tons, up 2.3%; and Thailand's dry season rice production increased to 7.529 million tons, up 2.8%.

However, several major producing countries faced downward pressure. Vietnam's dry season rice production fell to 4.80 million tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 7.8%; Myanmar's rice production dropped significantly by 3.9% to 21.15 million tons; Brazil's rice production decreased to 12.39 million tons, down 3.5%; Argentina's rice production fell to 1.93 million tons, a decline of 8.8%; Bangladesh's rice production edged up to 46.85 million tons, a modest increase of 0.6%; the rice production of Phillipines, Sri Lanka and Laos PDR remained essentially stable compared to 2025.

(3) Global Wheat Production Declines by 0.4%

Global wheat production in 2026 decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with supply conditions slightly tightening compared to 2025. Production recovery in Southern Hemisphere and European countries partially offset declines in Northern Hemisphere major producing countries. Argentina's wheat production reached 23.01 million tons, a substantial year-on-year increase of 5.3%; Australia's wheat production rose to 30.23 million tons, up 4.9%; France's wheat production recovered to 45.72 million tons, up 5.2%; Germany's wheat production increased to 19.65 million tons, up 2.4%; Iran's wheat production rose to 12.34 million tons, up 4.1%; China's winter wheat output was 133.62 million tons, up 1.3%; Pakistan's wheat production increased to 25.10 million tons, up 1.1%; Poland's wheat production rose to 9.58 million tons, up 3.1%; Romania's wheat production increased to 7.21 million tons, up 3.2%; Ethiopia's wheat production grew to 2.99 million tons, up 3.7%; and South Africa's wheat production rose to 1.88 million tons, up 3.6%.

However, several major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere faced significant downward pressure. Russia's wheat production fell to 86.10 million tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 8.6%; the United States' wheat production dropped to 69.87 million tons, down 7.0%; India's wheat production was essentially unchanged year-on-year at approximately 116.85 million tons; Turkey's wheat production decreased to 17.40 million tons, down 0.4%; Belarus' wheat production dropped to 2.91 million tons, down 1.5%; Italy's wheat production fell to 7.07 million tons, down 2.3%; Mexico's wheat production decreased to 3.56 million tons, down 4.6%; and the United Kingdom's wheat production remained stable at 13.23 million tons.

(4) Soybean Production Growth Trend Continues

Global soybean production in 2026 increased by 2.4% year-on-year. As the core production region, South America showed divergent trends: Brazil's soybean production continued to climb to 172.74 million tons, up 4.9% year-on-year, further consolidating its position as the world's leading soybean supplier; however, Argentina's soybean production fell to 48.36 million tons, a sharp year-on-year decrease of 8.1%. Overall, Brazil's substantial production increase effectively offset Argentina's decline, ensuring a loose supply pattern in the global soybean market.