From January to March 2026, the major winter wheat producing areas in the Northern Hemisphere successively entered key growth stages—from green-up to jointing. Based on integrated agrometeorological remote sensing monitoring and meteorological data from various countries, this report forecasts the yield of winter wheat in seven major producing countries in the Northern Hemisphere (China, France, Germany, Russia, Ukraine, the United States, and India).

In 2026, the total winter wheat planting area in the seven Northern Hemisphere countries is projected to be 116,548 thousand hectares, an increase of 1.4% compared with 2025. The average yield is forecast at 4,294 kg/ha, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. Total production is estimated at 500.44 million metric tons, a decrease of 1.44% from 2025.

A slight expansion in area but a broad decline in yields has resulted in a modest drop in total output. Differences among countries are significant: China, France, Germany, and Ukraine are expected to increase production (with Ukraine benefiting from a substantial recovery in planted area), while Russia, the United States, and India are projected to see lower production due to drought or unfavorable weather conditions.

Overall, the seven major winter wheat producers in 2026 show a pattern of  "higher area, lower yields, and a slight decrease in total production". Climate anomalies (drought in Russia, hot and dry conditions across the U.S. Great Plains, and unfavorable  weather in India) are the main drivers of the yield decline. In contrast, China and France have maintained yield growth due to excellent irrigation conditions or favorable climate. Ukraine has achieved a production recovery mainly through area expansion.

Key issues to monitor going forward include:

• Whether spring precipitation will improve in Russia and the United States;

• The impact of water and heat conditions during May–June in Ukraine on grain filling;

• The prevention and control of Fusarium head blight and stripe rust in the Huang-Huai-Hai region of China.

  
  

Table1.2 Winter Wheat Cultivation Area, Yield per Unit Area, and Total Production in 7 main wheat producing countries of the Northern Hemisphere from January to March 2025