From January to March 2026, rice production in the equatorial and adjacent rice-growing regions generally exhibited a pattern of “strong resilience in irrigated rice areas, localized pressure in rainfed rice areas, and marked regional differentiation.” The CroPI-1 for the global tropical zone was 1.02, indicating a normal to slightly favorable level, but its spatial distribution showed a distinct patchy mosaic pattern (Figure 1.8). Across the equatorial rice belt, CroPI-1 values in the alluvial plains of eastern South Asia, parts of the deltas in Southeast Asia, and irrigated rice areas on equatorial islands were mostly maintained within the ranges of 0.95–1.15 or 1.05–1.25, reflecting the support provided by irrigation systems and antecedent soil moisture for dry-season rice production. In contrast, CroPI-1 values declined to 0.75–0.95, and locally below 0.75, in inland rainfed agricultural areas of the Indochina Peninsula, parts of the inland dry areas in South Asia, and scattered rice-growing areas across the equatorial belt of Africa. This indicates that rainfall deficits, weak photosynthetically active radiation, or insufficient water management capacity adversely affected crop growth.

Figure 1.8 Spatial Distribution of the Crop Production Index (CroPI-1) in Equatorial and Adjacent Rice-Growing Regions, January–March 2026

South Asian rice-growing areas adjacent to the equatorial belt were in the late growth stage to pre-harvest stage of Rabi-season rice, with an overall pattern of “stability in the east and weaker conditions inland.” In the Ganges–Brahmaputra alluvial plain and deltaic rice-growing areas, CroPI-1 values mostly ranged from 0.95–1.05 or 1.05–1.15, indicating generally normal growth of Boro and Rabi rice, with slightly favorable conditions in some plains with better irrigation. During the monitoring period, precipitation was significantly below average across most of South Asia, with pronounced drought conditions over the Indian Peninsula and northwestern India. However, supported by irrigation systems, rice production conditions in eastern lowlands and deltaic rice areas remained relatively stable. Above-average precipitation in the northeast further improved soil moisture conditions in some rice-producing areas. By contrast, CroPI-1 values were relatively low in the middle and upper reaches of the Ganges Plain and in some inland marginal rice-growing areas of the peninsula, mainly due to rainfall deficits, reduced potential biomass, and locally insufficient irrigation support.

Southeast Asian rice-growing areas were one of the core regions for equatorial rice monitoring during this period. Under the background of below-average precipitation, dry-season rice and winter–spring rice production were primarily determined by irrigation conditions. In the southern Indochina Peninsula and the lower Mekong Plain, CroPI-1 generally remained within the range of 0.95–1.15, while some deltaic and coastal lowland areas reached 1.05–1.25, showing that irrigated rice areas maintained strong resilience despite insufficient dry-season rainfall. In major rice-growing areas such as central irrigated lowlands, the lower Mekong Delta, and coastal alluvial plains, although regional precipitation was below the average, reservoir storage, river networks, and canal systems provided supplementary water, allowing winter–spring rice or dry-season rice production to remain generally normal. In contrast, CroPI-1 values in the northern mountainous and hilly areas of the Indochina Peninsula, northeastern rainfed agricultural areas, and some inland marginal rice-growing zones were mostly between 0.75 and 0.95, with local values below 0.75. This reflects increasing water constraints toward the end of the dry season, with more pronounced impacts on non-irrigated cropland and residual vegetation. Slightly below-average conditions were also observed in the Red River Delta and surrounding early-season rice areas, where the effects of subsequent spring rainfall and irrigation replenishment on transplanting and early growth warrant attention.Rice-growing areas on equatorial islands generally showed a pattern of “favorable conditions in core irrigated areas and pressure in mixed rainfed–upland farming areas.” CroPI-1 values in Java–Bali and parts of the coastal alluvial plains were mostly within the range of 1.05–1.25, indicating generally favorable early growth after transplanting of main-season rice, with irrigation systems effectively buffering rainfall deficits. In some inland island areas and rainfed agricultural zones, CroPI-1 showed a patchy distribution of 0.75–0.95, which was associated with insufficient precipitation, above-average temperatures, and spatially uneven soil moisture during the monitoring period. Crop growth conditions varied considerably across parts of Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Sulawesi. Coastal and lowland rice-growing areas remained relatively stable, whereas inland rainfed crops and areas with weaker water management capacity experienced more evident pressure. Overall, the production outlook for rice-growing areas on equatorial islands remained relatively stable. Yield gains were mainly supported by favorable crop growth in core irrigated rice areas, although a slight contraction in planted area and localized drought conditions continued to limit further growth in total production.

Rice production in the equatorial rice-growing areas of Africa is relatively scattered, mainly distributed in the lowlands along the Gulf of Guinea, inland valleys, lakeside wetlands, and parts of the highland–lake agricultural belts in East Africa. The spatial distribution of CroPI-1 during this period showed an alternating green–orange pattern along the equatorial coast of West Africa and in inland valleys. Some lowland humid rice areas remained within the range of 0.95–1.15, indicating that antecedent soil moisture and local water availability were still adequate. However, CroPI-1 values were relatively low along the southern margin of the Sahel and in inland rainfed agricultural areas, reflecting rapid depletion of soil water storage toward the end of the dry season. Although precipitation was significantly above average in equatorial East Africa during the monitoring period and potential biomass increased, photosynthetically active radiation was below average, and harvesting and post-harvest drying were affected by rainfall in some local areas. As a result, CroPI-1 values mostly remained within the range of 0.75–0.95. Overall, the current contribution of equatorial African rice-growing areas to global rice production remains limited, but local food security is highly sensitive to the progress of the rainy season and water conditions in river valleys and wetlands. The establishment of the main rainy season should therefore continue to be monitored in the next monitoring period.

Overall, rice production conditions in equatorial regions during this period were close to average and slightly favorable, but internal regional differences were significant. Deltas, alluvial plains, and core rice-growing areas on islands with better irrigation conditions maintained relatively high CroPI levels, serving as the main factor supporting rice production stability during this monitoring period. In contrast, inland rainfed areas of the Indochina Peninsula, some inland marginal rice-growing zones in South Asia, and scattered rice-growing areas in equatorial Africa continued to face pressure from water deficits or insufficient radiation. In the next monitoring period, Rabi/Boro rice in South Asia will gradually enter the maturity and harvest stages, dry-season rice harvest and early-season rice sowing will continue in Southeast Asia, and main-season rice on equatorial islands will also enter a critical yield formation stage. Continued attention should be paid to reservoir storage, river network replenishment, and soil moisture recovery before the onset of the southwest monsoon. Rice production monitoring results for selected major producing countries in this region are shown in Table 1.2, while monitoring information for other countries is provided in Appendix Table A.1, Global Production of Major Cereals and Oil Crops.

Table 1.3 Rice Production Forecast for Selected Countries in Equatorial Rice-Growing Regions, January–March 2026