As the soybean harvest in South America approaches its final stage, global markets are closely watching the region’s actual output. As the core engine of global soybean supply, Brazil and Argentina together account for the vast majority of world production. Based on a review of satellite remote sensing and CropWatch indicators up to the end of March 2026, the overall situation in South America’s major soybean-producing areas during the monitoring period can be summarized as follows: a relatively dry climate, expanding planted area, divergent yield performance, and a slight year-on-year increase in total production.

In the 2025–2026 season, the total planted area in South America’s main soybean-producing regions reached approximately 65,196 thousand hectares, an expansion of about 5.3% compared with the previous season. Total soybean production in these regions amounted to around 214.36 million tons, representing a modest increase of approximately 1.3% from 211.62 million tons in the previous season. This continues the trend of rising soybean supply from South America, though the growth rate has slowed significantly (from +9.2% year-on-year in the previous season to only +1.3% this season).

The production increase this season shows marked divergence: Brazil’s main production areas relied on area expansion, while Argentina relied on yield recovery. In Brazil’s central-west and southern regions, planting area expanded substantially (up 8.8% year-on-year). However, these areas experienced a shift from favorable temperature and precipitation conditions in the previous season to high temperatures and dry conditions later in the season, leading to a decline in yield. Nevertheless, the expansion in area fully offset the yield loss, resulting in a slight net increase in total production. In Argentina’s Pampas region, the trend moved in the opposite direction: last season, heavy rainfall during the harvest period reduced photosynthesis and lowered yields, while this season saw a recovery rebound in yield.

From January to March 2026, agricultural meteorological conditions in South America’s main soybean-producing areas were generally dry. Cumulative precipitation was about 15% below the 15‑year average for the same period, and the average Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) remained below -8.0, indicating a persistent drought signal. The ongoing water deficits and regional divergence suggest that soybean production in South America is transitioning from a favorable environment of ample rainfall and optimal temperatures to a new phase characterized by using area expansion to compensate for yield losses and constrained yields due to limited water resources. Thus, while global markets welcome another season of abundant soybean harvest, they should also remain vigilant regarding soil moisture changes in the southern production areas of South America.

Table1.4 Soybean Production Verification for Major Soybean-producing Regions in South America (January–March 2026)