During the monitoring period, Argentina’s agrometeorological conditions were characterized by persistently below-average rainfall, slightly below-average temperature, near-average radiation, and crop conditions under stress. National cumulative rainfall was 19% below the 15-year average; mean temperature was 0.3°C below average; and photosynthetically active radiation was 2% below average. Under sustained moisture deficits, national potential accumulated biomass was 9% below average, indicating weaker-than-normal crop growth. Remote-sensing indicators show that the national cropland planting fraction (CALF) reached 97% (+1%), suggesting a generally high level of planting completion. Vegetation conditions remained relatively stable (Maximum VCI = 0.88), and the Crop Production Index (CPI) was 1.05, indicating that vegetation cover and growth resilience were still maintained. However, the drought signal remained pronounced (PDSI = −8.0), suggesting that water deficits continued to constrain yield formation and that the constraint had not been fully alleviated.

Regionally, drought pressure remained most prominent in the Pampas, Argentina’s main production belt. In the Humid Pampas, rainfall was 23% below average, potential accumulated biomass was 10% below average, and PDSI reached −10.6, indicating tight soil moisture conditions in the core grain-producing areas. In the Pampas Hills, rainfall was close to average, but radiation was 6% below average; biomass declined by only 3%, and crop performance was comparatively stable. In the Semiarid Pampas, rainfall was only slightly below average (−1%), while CALF was 79% (+19%), suggesting a rapid recovery in planting activity, although cultivation intensity remained lower than in the eastern production belt. In the North, rainfall was 24% below average and biomass declined by 11%, making it among the most drought-affected zones nationwide. In Mesopotamia, rainfall was still 11% below average, but CALF reached 100% (+5%) and CPI was 1.10, indicating relatively favorable crop production conditions. In the Northwest subtropical highlands, rainfall was 16% above average and biomass increased by 6%, making it one of the few regions performing better than average. Overall, from January to March 2026, Argentina’s agricultural situation featured high planting completion nationwide, but persistent dryness in the main producing areas continued to suppress biomass accumulation. This suggests that yield prospects will depend largely on rainfall supply during the forthcoming critical grain-filling stage; risks remain higher for water-demanding crops such as maize than for soybean.

According to the latest CropWatch monitoring results (Figure 2.1/2.2), Argentina’s soybean planting area in 2025–2026 decreased from 18.69 million hectares to 18.18 million hectares (−2.7%). Despite the slight area reduction, rainfall in March and the partial easing of earlier drought supported a yield recovery: average yield increased from 2.27 t/ha to 2.41 t/ha (+6.3%), raising total production from 42.41 million tonnes to 43.82 million tonnes (+3.3%). Overall, the soybean production increase was driven mainly by yield recovery rather than area expansion.

For maize, policy measures—including a reduction in export taxes and streamlined export approvals—improved profitability expectations. However, limited rainfall during the planting window, high production costs, and lower risk appetite led farmers to further reduce maize area. CropWatch indicates that maize area decreased from 8.09 million hectares to 7.27 million hectares (−10.2%). Average yield declined slightly from 6.52 t/ha to 6.47 t/ha (−0.8%), and total production fell from 52.79 million tonnes to 47.01 million tonnes (−10.9%). This indicates that the maize production decline was primarily driven by area contraction, with a small yield reduction further amplifying the decrease.

Overall, Argentina’s 2025–2026 season is characterized by recovering soybean production and pressured maize production. Under persistently dry conditions nationwide, soybean output increased despite a slight area reduction, supported by improved yields. By contrast, maize production declined markedly due to a substantial reduction in planted area combined with a small yield loss. Both crops are entering the harvest realization stage. A recovery in Argentina’s soybean supply will help ease tightness in the global oilseed market, while reduced maize output will limit export growth. Continued attention should be paid to harvest progress, export shipment pace, and their potential impacts on international prices.

Figure 2.1 Argentina major crop type map during January to March 2026

Figure 2.2 Argentina soybean yield map during January to March 2026