During the monitoring period, Brazil’s agrometeorological conditions were characterized by below-average rainfall, near-average temperature, slightly reduced radiation, and overall stable crop conditions with clear regional contrasts. National cumulative rainfall was 13% below the 15-year average; mean temperature was 0.1°C below average; and photosynthetically active radiation was 4% below average. Affected by rainfall deficits in parts of the major producing areas, national potential accumulated biomass was 4% below average, indicating broadly stable agricultural production at the national level, while crop growth was locally constrained.

CropWatch indicators show that the national cropland planting fraction (CALF) was 2% below average, suggesting generally normal planting progress with slight delays in some areas. The Maximum VCI (0.90) and the Crop Production Index (CPI) (1.00) point to near-normal vegetation conditions overall. However, a strong drought signal persisted (PDSI = −8.6), implying that moisture deficits in some areas continued to constrain yield formation.

Marked regional differences were observed between the Center-West and the South. In Mato Grosso and surrounding areas, cumulative rainfall was 7% below average, while potential accumulated biomass declined by only 1%, indicating strong resilience in the core grain and oilseed belt. In the central tropical savanna zone, rainfall was 9% below average but biomass increased by 3%, reflecting overall stable production conditions. In the Paraná River basin, rainfall was 16% below average, causing localized stress for soybean and maize in parts of southern Brazil. The subtropical mixed farming–livestock zone recorded the most pronounced moisture constraint, with rainfall 33% below average and potential accumulated biomass 13% below average. Overall, from January to March 2026, Brazil’s agricultural production remained broadly stable, with robust performance in the Center-West, while dryness in the South and localized water deficits limited yield potential in some areas.

According to the latest monitoring results (Figure 2.4/2.5), Brazil’s soybean planting area increased from 43.21 million hectares in 2025–2026 to 47.02 million hectares (+8.8%). Although early-season planting progressed smoothly and conditions during key growth stages were generally favorable, late-season episodes of heat and dryness affected parts of the main producing areas. Average soybean yield decreased from 3.92 t/ha to 3.63 t/ha (−7.4%), while total production increased from 169.21 million tonnes to 170.54 million tonnes (+0.8%). This indicates that, despite yield pressure, soybean output rose slightly, with production gains primarily driven by area expansion.

For first-season maize, planting incentives remained broadly stable. Monitoring results indicate that first-season maize area increased from 4.21 million hectares to 4.60 million hectares (+9.2%). However, rainfall deficits and heat stress in parts of the southern producing areas led to a marginal yield reduction from 7.60 t/ha to 7.54 t/ha (−0.8%). As a result, total production increased from 31.99 million tonnes to 34.67 million tonnes (+8.4%). Overall, first-season maize production followed a pattern of expanded area, slightly reduced yield, and increased output, with gains mainly attributable to larger planted area.

Soybean harvest is nearing completion, and first-season maize is entering peak harvest. Continued soybean supply will support stability in the global oilseed market, while improved maize availability will help ease pressure in international feed grain markets. Close attention should be paid to harvest progress in southern producing areas, port loading efficiency, and export pace, as well as the rainfall distribution and its potential implications for subsequent cropping activities.

Figure 2.4 Brazil major crop type map during January to March 2026

Figure 2.5 Brazil soybean yield map during January to March 2026