From January to March 2026, China was generally characterized by warmer temperatures and reduced rainfall. Compared with the average of the same period over the past 15 years, the national average temperature was 0.4°C higher, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) was 8% lower, and cumulative precipitation was 21% lower (only 62 mm). As a result, potential cumulative biomass was 10% lower (233 g DM/m²). CropWatch monitoring shows that the Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) was 0.90, and the Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI) was 0.94, slightly below the baseline value 1.0 and the recent 5-year average 1.02, but clearly higher than the same period last year (Fig. 2.7). This indicates that the overall production outlook for winter crops is better than last year.

Figure 2.7 Time series of China's Crop Production Situation Index (CroPI), 2026

By integrating multi-source remote sensing data, such as ESA Sentinel-1/2, US Landsat-8/9, and the national 10 m cropland map, together with massive in situ samples collected using the GVG smart-phone APP, and applying AI approaches including Random Forest and transfer learning, the planted areas of winter crops and winter wheat were monitored. Combined with the latest agro-meteorological information and remote-sensing-based yield models, this year's winter crops output (Table 2.1) and winter wheat output (Table 2.2) were predicted as follows.

(1) Winter crops production prediction

Total national winter crops production in 2026 is projected at 146.85 million tons, an increase of 1.69 million tons year-on-year (+1.2%), larger than the 0.8% growth in 2025. The nine major producing provinces are expected to produce 121.55 million tons winter crops, up 1.45 million tons (+1.2%). Production in other producing provinces are projected to increase by 0.9% (+0.24 million tons). National winter crops planted area is expected to increase by 1.0%, and yield per unit area to increase by 0.2%; the simultaneous increase in area and yield supports a steady rise in total output (Table 2.1).

Provinces such as Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei, and Shandong are leading the production increase. Specifically, Jiangsu shows a 2.8% increase in planted area and a 0.8% increase in yield, with total production reaching 14.37 million tons, up 0.50 million tons (+3.6%). Henan shows a 1.6% increase in area and a 0.2% increase in yield, with output reaching 34.29 million tons, up 0.62 million tons (+1.8%). Hebei shows a 2.3% area increase; although yield slightly decreases by 0.4%, total production still rises by 0.26 million tons (+1.9%). Shandong has unchanged area but a 1.4% yield increase, with output reaching 27.98 million tons, up 0.39 million tons (+1.4%).

In contrast, winter crops production declines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Gansu. Shanxi records a 3.8% reduction in area and a 3.1% drop in yield, leading to a decrease of 0.16 million tons, the largest decline in percentage among provinces (-6.8%). Shaanxi has stable area but a sharp 4.2% yield reduction, with output down 0.17 million tons (-4.2%), mainly due to persistent winter–spring drought. Gansu shows a 1.6% area decrease, with output slightly down by 0.03 million tons (-0.8%). Anhui maintains stable area and a slight 0.1% yield decrease, resulting in near-stable output (-0.1%).

Table 2.1 Prediction of yield and production for major winter crops producing provinces, 2026

(2) Winter wheat production prediction

In 2026, China's winter wheat planted area, yield, and total production are all expected to increase slightly. Winter wheat planted area is projected at 24,534 thousand hectares, up 1.0% year-on-year. The national average yield is projected at 5,446 kg/ha, up 0.3%. With both area expansion and yield improvement, total production is expected to increase 1.3% year-on-year to 133.62 million tons. In the Huang-Huai-Hai main producing region, area remains stable to slightly higher; soil moisture at overwintering is favorable. Since the green-up stage, the overall match of radiation and temperature is suitable, supporting continued steady growth in total output (Table 2.2; Fig. 2.1).

Figure 2.8 Spatial distribution of winter wheat in North China and the Huang-Huai-Hai wheat producing region, 2026

Among them, the nine major producing provinces account for 21,102 thousand hectares, up 1.1%, representing 86.0% of the national winter wheat area. The Huang-Huai-Hai region (Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, Henan) is the core production zone, accounting for about 72% of planted area, though changes differ within the region: Jiangsu rebounds sharply with a 4.7% increase of planted area to 2,805 thousand hectares; Henan increases by 1.6% to 5,562 thousand hectares; and Hebei increases by 2.3% to 2,310 thousand hectares. Planted areas in Shandong, Anhui, and Shaanxi are unchanged at 4,412, 3,133, and 818 thousand hectares, respectively. Shanxi and Gansu decrease by 3.8% and 1.6%, respectively.

The national average winter wheat yield is projected at 5,446 kg/ha (+0.3%). Major producing provinces show a better yield increase (+0.4%) than other provinces (-0.9%), highlighting the production stability and agricultural resillence in main producing areas.

Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, and Gansu lead the production increase. In Jiangsu, yield increases by 0.8%, and total output rises by 0.75 million tons (+5.5%), the largest increase in terms of inter-annual production changes in percentage among major producing provinces. Henan shows a 0.2% yield increase, with output reaching 34.14 million tons, up 0.62 million tons (+1.8%). Shandong shows a 1.4% yield increase, with output rising by 0.38 million tons (+1.4%), contributing 23% of the national production increase. In Gansu, although area decreases by 1.6%, yield rises sharply by 3.6%, resulting in an output increase of 0.04 million tons (+2.0%).

Winter wheat output declines in Shanxi and Shaanxi. Shanxi records a 3.8% area decrease and a 3.1% yield drop, with output down 0.16 million tons (-6.8%). Shaanxi has stable area but a 3.7% yield drop, with output down 0.11 million tons (-3.7%), mainly due to the drought conditions. Anhui remains stable in area with a slight 0.1% yield decrease, resulting in nearly stable output (-0.1%).

Although persistent cloudy and rainy conditions during the 2025 summer crops harvest affected winter wheat sowing in North China and delayed sowing dates in parts of the main producing areas, the overall meteorological conditions during the 2025–2026 overwintering period were normal, with good soil moisture and weaker-than-normal cold wave intensity, enabling safe overwintering in northern regions. After green-up, light–temperature–water conditions generally match well; weather conditions are sufficient and both radiation and soil moisture are favorable in most winter wheat areas, indicating a good production outlook. However, attention should be paid to the following adverse factors: (1) higher winter temperatures in 2025/2026 may increase overwintering pest and disease; (2) higher spring precipitation in the Huang-Huai-Hai wheat regions increases the risk of outbreaks of moisture-favoring diseases such as Fusarium head blight (FHB) and stripe rust. It is recommended that the Huang-Huai-Hai regions strengthen pest and diseases control; areas such as southern/central Henan, southwestern Shandong, northern Jiangsu, northern Anhui (Huaibei), and the Guanzhong Plain of Shaanxi should enhance flowering-stage management and guard against hazardous weather such as strong winds that can cause lodging.

Table 2.2 Prediction of winter wheat planted area, yield, and production for major producing provinces, 2026