Between January and March 2026, Indian agricultural production entered the critical phase for Rabi crop growth and harvesting. CropWatch monitoring (Figure 2.13) shows that India's wheat cultivated area for this year reached 33,438 thousand hectares, representing a modest increase of 1.33% compared to 2025. However, impacted by unfavorable meteorological conditions during the monitoring period, wheat yield was recorded at 3,494.46 kg/ha, a decrease of 2.42% from the previous year. Consequently, total wheat production is projected at 116.85 million tonnes, a year-on-year decline of 1.1%. Despite the slight drop in total output, yield levels have shown a degree of recovery compared to the early forecasts from the previous monitoring period.

Figure 2.13 Distribution of Rabi wheat in India

Simultaneously, the production situation for Rabi rice remained stable. The cultivated area was 11,344.8 thousand hectares, with a yield of 4,702.4 kg/ha and an estimated total production of 53.35 million tonnes. Spatially, cultivation continues to be concentrated in the eastern coastal regions and southern irrigated zones (Figure 2.14).

Figure 2.14 Distribution of Rabi rice in India

CropWatch agroclimatic indicators reveal that India exhibited a distinct "dry and warm" trend throughout the country during this period. The RAIN was only 29 mm, significantly below the 15-year average by 34%. Moisture deficit became the primary factor constraining the growth of rain-fed crops.. The TEMP was 22.4°C, which is 0.2°C above the average, indicating generally normal thermal conditions. The RADPAR decreased by 6%, which, combined with the lack of rainfall, led to a 17% decline in BIOMSS. This agroclimatic pattern explains the retreat in wheat yield, as insufficient soil moisture driven by rainfall shortages exerted persistent pressure on Rabi crops during their critical yield-formation stages.

Analysis of CropWatch agronomic indicators shows that the CALF stood at 82%, and theVCIx was 0.89, indicating that crop vigor is within a normal-to-favorable range. However, drought risks intensified in specific regions; the Central India region suffered the most severe rainfall deficit (-73%), leading to a sharp 23% drop in potential biomass. The Ganges Plain, a core wheat-producing area, also faced a 37% rainfall shortage, contributing to the downward pressure on yield. In contrast, Northeast India performed exceptionally well, with rainfall exceeding the average by 76%, providing ample water resources for Rabi rice in that region.

Combined with crop phenology analysis, both Rabi wheat and rice in India began entering the harvest stage in March, with the harvest expected to be completed by May. Current production forecasts largely reflect the final output levels. Overall assessment suggests that while 2026 Rabi agricultural production was constrained by significant rainfall deficits, the extent of wheat reduction was effectively mitigated by the expansion of cultivated area and relatively stable temperatures in the later stages. Meanwhile, the growth of Rabi rice has maintained a reasonable and steady trajectory.