From January to March 2026, Indonesia’s agricultural outlook was generally cautiously optimistic. The country experienced a nationwide precipitation deficit, with rainfall 30% below the average for the same period, leading to a 15% decrease in potential biomass. Nevertheless, 93% of cropland remained under cultivation, and the Crop Production Situation Index was slightly above the baseline. This indicates that early rice growth in irrigated dry-season rice areas was generally supported, whereas rainfed upland cropping areas, particularly maize-growing areas, were clearly constrained by insufficient water availability.

Crop phenology and NDVI dynamics revealed pronounced spatial differences. Rainy-season maize in Java and Sumatra was in the grain-filling and maturity stages from January to February and transitioned toward harvest in March. Meanwhile, the main-season rice crop across the country entered the early growth stage after transplanting in January. Correspondingly, NDVI trajectories showed clear divergence: some areas already performed well in January; spatial differences were most pronounced in February, reflecting uneven water conditions; and by March, both intensified stress and strong recovery were observed, highlighting differences in crop responses under different cropping systems and management levels. Despite a 1.46% decrease in rice area, rice yield increased by 7.5%, resulting in a 5.92% increase in total rice production (Figure 2.15).

Regional conditions varied markedly. West Papua showed the most favorable conditions, with normal precipitation, the highest potential biomass, and a positive outlook. Java, as a core rice-producing region, demonstrated strong resilience. Although radiation was relatively weak, irrigation helped maintain favorable peak vegetation conditions. In contrast, Sumatra and the Kalimantan-Sulawesi region faced prominent risks, with severe precipitation deficits and above-average temperatures. Vegetation conditions were significantly below the average, and rainfed agriculture was under considerable stress.

Overall, Indonesia’s agriculture this quarter showed a pattern of overall stability with localized pressure. The national production outlook was slightly positive, mainly supported by irrigated rice. However, severe drought in areas such as Sumatra has already had a substantial impact on rainfed crops, making these regions vulnerable areas that require priority attention.

Figure 2.15 Dry-season rice yield in Indonesia from January to March 2026