From January to March 2026, winter wheat in Pakistan was in the maturity stage. The latest agro-remote sensing monitoring results show (Figure 2.17) that the national winter wheat yield is forecast at 3,999.99 kg/ha. Yield levels are relatively high in the concentrated winter wheat production areas of the central and eastern Indus Plain, with local maximum values reaching 6,788 kg/ha. In contrast, yields are relatively lower in the southern and western non-concentrated production areas. This indicates that national winter wheat production still relies mainly on the irrigated agricultural areas in central and eastern Pakistan. The national winter wheat planted area is forecast at 9.073 million hectares, with total production estimated at 36.292 million tonnes.

During the monitoring period, national cumulative precipitation reached 43.04 mm, which was 50.5% below the average of the past 15 years. The average temperature was 18.35°C, 1.14°C above the normal level, while photosynthetically active radiation reached 658.57 MJ/m², 5.85% below the average. The national biomass production potential was 283.14 gDM/m², representing a 26.43% decrease from the normal level. These conditions indicate that agricultural production during the season was generally constrained by a notable water deficit.

Although the agroclimatic conditions were generally unfavorable, the national cropped arable land fraction reached 84.13%, the maximum vegetation condition index (VCIx) was 0.876, and the crop production index (CPI) was 1.0288, slightly above the normal baseline. These indicators suggest that winter wheat growth in the main producing areas remained generally stable, and areas with better irrigation conditions provided a strong buffer against drought stress. The NDVI anomaly profile shows that some areas experienced temporary fluctuations in crop growth in February, but most regions gradually recovered by March and approached the normal level. Overall, Pakistan’s winter wheat production outlook remains generally stable. However, as the crop enters the grain-filling stage, close attention should still be paid to the potential adverse effects of advanced phenology under persistently warmer conditions, insufficient effective precipitation, and fluctuations in irrigation water supply on final yield formation.

Figure 2.17 Estimated Winter Wheat Yield in Pakistan, 2025–2026