From January to March 2026, Russian winter wheat was transitioning from the overwintering period to the early green-up stage. Due to severe winter cold and deep snow cover across most parts of Russia, remote-sensing signals of vegetation indices were strongly affected by snow cover. Therefore, crop condition assessment is still at an early stage. The current analysis mainly reflects antecedent soil moisture conditions and soil water reserves during the overwintering period, and the crop has not yet entered the grain-filling to maturity stages, when final yield prospects can be assessed more reliably. Given this monitoring limitation, this period focuses on the Black Sea coastal Caucasus region, where winter conditions are relatively mild and crops remain observable. Based on remote-sensing monitoring results for winter wheat in this region, combined with historical yield data and meteorological models, an early assessment of national wheat production conditions was conducted. According to the spatial distribution map of wheat yield levels in Russia’s Caucasus region, yield levels along the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts were significantly higher than those in inland areas, showing a decreasing gradient from the coast toward the interior. This indicates higher wheat yield levels under the warm and humid climate of southern Russia (Figure 2.20).

                          Figure 2.20 Spatial Distribution of Wheat Yield Levels in Russia's Caucasus Region

                         Figure 2.21 Surface Soil Moisture Anomalies in Russia's Caucasus Region

From the perspective of soil moisture conditions, Russia's agrometeorological conditions during this period were generally weak. Cumulative precipitation was about 8% below the average of the past 15 years, potential biomass was 7% lower, and overall soil water reserves were insufficient. The surface soil moisture anomalies in the Caucasus region further reveal internal moisture-related risks. In Figure 2.21, red and orange areas represent negative soil moisture anomalies, mainly distributed in the northern and northeastern Caucasus and parts of the inland plains. Local negative anomalies reached −0.18 to −0.31, indicating that water deficits from autumn and winter were still persisting. Green and blue areas represent positive soil moisture anomalies, mainly located along the Black Sea coast, in the southern foothills, and in parts of the southwest, with anomalies of about 0.08 to 0.21. This suggests relatively favorable antecedent soil moisture conditions in these areas. Combined with Figure 2.20, the Black Sea coastal areas and some southern high-yield-potential zones overlap to some extent with positive anomaly areas, which is conducive to maintaining the basis for local winter wheat green-up. However, areas east of the Sea of Azov, the inland North Caucasus, and some wheat-growing areas in the northeast, despite having certain production potential, are currently under negative surface soil moisture anomalies. If spring precipitation remains insufficient, moisture stress may emerge rapidly. Soil moisture conditions in the main winter wheat-producing regions showed marked differentiation (Table 2.3).

Table 2.3 Dashboard for Agrometeorological Monitoring and Risk Assessment of Major Winter Wheat-Producing Regions in Russia

The dashboard and the soil moisture anomaly map jointly indicate that the North Caucasus is the region with the most prominent soil moisture risk. The antecedent soil moisture deficit caused by extreme autumn drought has continued to the present, surface soil moisture is generally under negative anomalies, and cumulative water deficits are severe. In the South Caucasus, the autumn sowing foundation was favorable, and positive surface soil moisture anomalies along the Black Sea coast and in parts of the southern foothills provide some support for local high-yield-potential areas. However, insufficient winter precipitation has already placed soil water storage under pressure in some inland producing areas, and whether it can support subsequent growth stages after spring green-up remains to be seen. In the Urals and Western Volga, abundant precipitation during the overwintering period (+17%) contributed to snow reserves, making soil moisture conditions relatively stable during this period. In Central Russia, although earlier moisture replenishment improved soil water conditions, significantly below-average temperature during this period (−2.7°C), combined with a 19% decrease in potential biomass, may delay the onset of green-up. In the Middle Volga, the combination of dry and cold conditions creates high uncertainty for spring soil moisture recovery.

Taking into account wheat yield levels in the Caucasus region, surface soil moisture anomalies, the national soil moisture pattern, and historical production monitoring information, Russia's total winter wheat production in 2026 is preliminarily estimated at 86.10 million tons, down 8.6% from the previous year. The planted area is estimated at 30.14 million hectares, basically unchanged year on year (−0.3%), while average yield is estimated at 2,856.94 kg/ha, down 8.3%. The decline in yield is the dominant factor behind the production decrease, mainly due to severe antecedent soil moisture deficits caused by persistent drought in the North Caucasus and generally weak soil moisture conditions across Russia. It should be emphasized that winter wheat is currently still in the overwintering to early green-up stage, and remote-sensing observations are still part of an early production assessment. Therefore, the production forecast remains subject to considerable uncertainty and needs to be dynamically revised based on crop condition monitoring after green-up. In terms of risks, cumulative water deficit is most severe in the North Caucasus, where negative surface soil moisture anomalies are widespread. If spring precipitation fails to provide effective replenishment, moisture stress during the green-up to jointing stages will intensify rapidly and become a key bottleneck constraining yield formation. Soil moisture conditions along the Black Sea coast and in parts of the southern foothills are relatively favorable, helping to maintain local high production potential, but whether this can offset yield reduction risks in northern and inland producing areas remains uncertain. In Central Russia and eastern European Russia, significantly below-average temperatures may delay the green-up process and further shorten the effective growing period. In the next monitoring period from March to May, winter wheat will enter the critical stages of green-up, jointing, and booting. The recovery of antecedent soil moisture and the timing and amount of spring precipitation will determine the final production outlook, and the reliability of crop condition monitoring will also improve significantly at that stage.