Overall favorable climate, with good coordination between rainfall and radiation. During the monitoring period, South Africa received 251 mm of precipitation, 4% above the long-term average. The mean temperature was 21.3°C, close to normal (0.3°C below average). Solar radiation totaled 886 MJ/m², 6% below average, while biomass reached 850 g DM/m², essentially at the long-term mean. Overall, conditions can be characterized as "slightly wetter, thermally suitable, with slightly reduced radiation". Improved moisture availability largely offset the radiation shortfall, keeping biomass at a normal level and providing a relatively favorable climatic environment for maize growth.

Both planted area and yield increase, indicating an improving production outlook. In 2026, South Africa's maize planted area is 4,136 thousand hectares, up 3.0% from 4,016 thousand hectares in 2025; yield is 5,559 kg/ha, up 4.99% from 5,295 kg/ha (Fig. 2.22). The area expansion suggests stronger farmer planting incentives, likely supported by relatively favorable maize prices and stable market demand. The yield improvement benefits from better rainfall conditions and suitable temperatures that support crop growth and development. The simultaneous increases in area and yield jointly lift total production.

Total production is projected to near 23 million tons under dual drivers. With planted area up 3.0% and yield up 4.99%, South Africa's 2026 maize production is projected at 22.99 million tons, an 8.10% increase from 21.27 million tons in 2025. This represents a relatively high level in recent years, helping reinforce South Africa’s position as a leading maize producer in Africa and supporting regional food security. If weather remains stable during harvest, actual production could edge above 23.0 million tons.

Overall assessment and outlook. South Africa's 2026 maize production shows a positive trend: generally supportive climate conditions, together with concurrent gains in planted area and yield, are pushing output toward 23 million tons. Key risks to monitor include: excess rainfall during harvest, which could hinder grain drying and slow harvesting progress, and the potential constraint of 6% below-normal radiation on photosynthesis during late grain filling. Overall, maize conditions are normal to slightly favorable, and the annual production outlook is optimistic.

Figure 2.22 Pattern of wheat yield in South Africa