During the monitoring period (January–March 2026), U.S. agriculture was in a typical winter crop–dominated stage. Nationwide, only winter wheat was in its main growing phase, while maize, soybean, and spring wheat were generally in the non-growing season. CropWatch agri-climatic monitoring indicated that cropland across the country was significantly drier than normal, with total rain of about 106 mm, 32% below the 15-year average for the same period. Meanwhile, temperature was approximately 2°C above average and PAR was about 5% lower, jointly resulting in reduced potential accumulated biomass (−9%).

Agro-condition monitoring showed that the national NDVI trajectory exhibited a pattern characterized by “steady growth dominated by winter wheat followed by rapid recovery in early spring.” From late February to March, NDVI gradually increased with crop green-up, and the overall level was higher than both last year and the long-term average for the same period. The national Maximum Vegetation Condition Index (VCIx) reached 0.85, and the Cropped Arable land Fraction (CALF) was 46%, consistent with winter fallow conditions, snow cover, and crop spatial distribution patterns. Overall, crop growth exhibited a feature of “sufficient heat but limited moisture,” with a Crop Production Index of 0.97, slightly below the long-term average. As winter wheat gradually enters the rapid growth stage, insufficient soil moisture is expected to increasingly constrain its development and may also negatively affect spring crop sowing and early emergence, requiring continued attention.

At the regional scale, agri-climatic conditions across the country generally showed a pattern of “widespread dryness in core winter wheat–producing regions, with locally warmer conditions advancing growth.” On the one hand, higher temperatures favored rapid green-up of winter wheat and soil thawing, facilitating field operations and, to some extent, advancing the sowing progress of maize, soybean, and spring wheat. On the other hand, persistently below average rain led to insufficient soil moisture replenishment, which may constrain sowing quality and seedling uniformity, particularly in rainfed agricultural regions. Among key regions, the Southern Great Plains exhibited the most pronounced drought stress, with rain of only 50 mm (−47%) during the monitoring period, combined with significantly higher temperatures (+3°C). As a result, although winter wheat greened up earlier, overall growth was weak (VCIx 0.79), showing a typical pattern of “early green-up but poor growth,” implying a higher risk to yield formation. In contrast, the northwestern region received 130 mm of rain (−24%), which, although below normal, was sufficient to meet early-stage water requirements. At the same time, significantly higher temperatures (+1.9°C) promoted early green-up of winter wheat and recovery of natural vegetation. Under relatively favorable hydrothermal conditions, NDVI increased rapidly, with VCIx reaching 1.10 and the Crop Production Index (CroPI) reaching 1.51, indicating generally good agricultural conditions.

Considering the overall production situation of winter wheat, CropWatch remote sensing monitoring and forecasting indicate that in 2026, the winter wheat planting area in the United States decreased by 1%, yield reached 5,394 kg/ha (−5.6%), and total production is expected to be 69.87 million tons (−6.55%).

Table 2.4 U.S. Winter Wheat Planting Area and Production, 2025–2026

Figure 2.22 2025–2026 Winter Wheat Yield Distribution in the United States of America